NEAR THE WATER – Has been running well in two starts this season, course winner and soft conditions suit but question mark over stamina. If he stays he will be involved in the finish.
MZURI BAY – Seems to like Plumpton and trainer has a 25% S/R here but horse has no form on soft ground, folded quite tamely over hurdles last time out and can be dismissed.
RATEABLE VALUE – Generally progressive over fences (W-P-R 1-3-4) and conditions suit but fitness must be taken on trust.
REBLIS – Gamely landed first win in twelve chase starts last time out (up 2lb) but that was on G/F and his record with soft in it is 0-3-11.
DUNKELLY CASTLE – Wants a easy, flat track to be seen at best and has shown nothing in two runs for current connections so one to swerve here.
JORDAN – Chase debut, rated 96 over hurdles, running off 100 today, can go well fresh & conditions suit, one to note in the betting.
ITS A CLASSIC – Has (W-P-R 3-5-16) a 50% record in chases and rallied well for pressure last time over C/D to finish 2nd, on same mark of 99, conditions suit and must go close.
BRUNETTE´SONLY – Maiden who can only be watched on Chase debut. Rated 90 over hurdles
PORTRAIT ROYALE – C/D & going suit & 2lb below last winning mark, but rather tame reappearance over C/D two weeks ago and needs to show more.
ZIMBABWE – 11yo with one win in last 25 starts, that was over C/D from 18lb out of the handicap on soft ground last time out, up 9lb taking everything into account and hard to see him defying rise.
BALLINHASSIG – Has shown very little, is 33lbs out of the weights and is readily dismissed.
VERDICT
So im left with four against the field Near The Water who has a stamina doubt, Rateable Value who if fit can show up well, Its A Classic who must go close based on his latest run over C/D and Jordan who is a live E/W shot at best priced 14/1.
1pt win Its A Classic @ 5/1 with Ladbrooks 2nd at 7/2
0.5pt E/W – Jordan @ 14/1 with Paddy Power p/u
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