Im going to be looking at the two most valuable NH races of the day which are a 2m2f class 2 handicap chase at Fontwell and a 2m4f class 3 handicap hurdle from Hexham.
Looking at the Chase from Fontwell first we can start by discounting Oldrick and Tatispout until they show a little more interest in the game. King Edmund will do well to repeat his 2nd in this last year as he'd had a previous run and was 6lbs lower. Pure Faith has shown nothing since his good 2nd to Alberta's Run at Aintree last October, but fresh (3 runs 2 wins with a break of 120 days or more) may be the time to catch him and at 10/1 tonight with 8 runners he looks a possible each way bet. Marodima running style suits Fontwell and it shows with a course record of 211, he was in cracking form when last out in May and is not to badly treated even after a 10 lb rise for his last win. Current Event represents champion trainer Paul Nicholls and is 2 from 2 (in weak novice chases) over C/D, but he was well held on his handicap debut and has only been dropped 1lb. Mister Matt is in top form but has never won beyond 2 miles in 13 attempts and also seems best on a flat track. Gus Macrae has not been seen since winning a weak Bangor novice chase 510 days ago and had shown little aptitude for chasing up until then, hard to get excited about even with McCoy on board.
Verdict
Marodima looks the call here and at 4/1 tonight I have helped myself. Current Event can't be discounted due to connections and for each-way players Pure Faith at 10/1 looks a good value bet.
Bet's
Marodima - Win Single @ 4/1 1st @ 7/2sp
I'll be back tomorrow morning to look at the Hexham race.
Right then the 1505 from Hexham, Summer Soul can be dismissed as he's a quirky one and he showed nothing on his return. Cool Baranca won 4 handicap hurdles this summer against lesser opposition but can be opposed here up in grade against less exposed rivals. Crystal Rock is the next for the chop, the ground won't suit and he looks too need a few more pounds to come off his back before he gets his head in front. Bury Parade easily won two novice hurdles in the mud here last season and ran well in a Grade 2 at Kelso on his final start, top weight here he should go well and is interesting at 10/1. Howizee doesn't look a natural jumper, looks better over further and may need better ground, so he's passed over as well.
Kellys Brow won on his handicap debut in August and up 7lbs which will not stop him as he looks far from exposed, soft ground will suit and a major player here at the current 4/1. Global Fella, a huge horse he looks to be a chaser in the making, he showed signs of temperament last season and was sold out of Nicky Henderson's yard over the summer he looks up against it here on unsuitable soft ground and a stiff enough mark. River Dragon won on the flat in the mud on Wednesday and looks to have a major chance here two days later, the only thing putting me off is his record on undulating tracks 0-3-9 (W-P-R).
Verdict
Kellys Brow looks the most unexposed horse in the race and is very tempting at 4/1, but the main bet in the race is Bury Parade each way at 10/1 as I just can't see him out of the first three.
Bet's
Kellys Brow - Win Single @ 4/1 - unplaced (p/u)
Bury Parade - Each-Way @ 10/1 - unplaced (4th)
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