Friday October 11th

Action today from Carlisle with the most valuable NH race of the day a Class 3 2m Handicap Chase, its going to be tough going with the stiff finish and soft conditions but lets take a look at the runners.

Tito Bustillo - Chase Record 0-0-2(w-p-r). Ex Paul Nicholls hurdler who hasn't convinced with his jumping in two starts over fences. Handicap chase debut and could be on a reasonable mark but all his winning & placed form is in fields of 10 or more runners.
Bocciani - Chase Record 2-3-11. Didn't stay 2m7f on Sunday at Kelso and 2m on soft ground even round Carlisle may not be quite the test he needs but this course winner will be staying on late on.
Fred Bojangles - Chase Record 7-10-42. Travelled well for a long way latest but looks to need a bit more help from the handicapper before he's troubling the judge again. All best form on better ground and trainer not had a winner for over a year.
Moulin De La Croix - Chase Record 3-7-20. 7lb penalty for easy win latest & 3lb above highest winning mark but in form this year especially on soft/heavy, conditions suit, stable flying and major player here.
Carrietau - Chase Record 5-11-47. Moody front runner who sometimes sulks when headed, on the plus side he's a C/D winner who has dropped to 2lb above his last winning mark but trainer not had a winner since July.
Prosecco - Chase Record 1-3-10. Dropping to a winnable mark but never won going right handed or on an undulating track. Can go well fresh but opposable.
Storm Surge - Chase Record 4-6-25. No worthwhile form since December 2011, record suggests he'll need the run and passed over on reappearance.


Verdict

The only two I can see with any sort of chance are Moulin De La Croix and Bocciani. Preference by a long way is for Moulin De La Croix as he has his conditions, is in form, his stable are going well and he can defy a penalty.

Bet  

 Moulin De La Croix @ 13/8   (4th @ 9/4)

She ran well but got caught out by the rise in class, the blog seems to be on a bit of a losing run at the moment but my luck will turn, onwards and upwards to Chepstow tomorrow.