Wed 28th December 2011 - 1435 - 3m Grade 1 Chase - Leopardstown

COOLDINE – Not won since RSA Chase 2009, chase record 3-2-13(w-p-r), beaten 34 lengths by Rubi Light over an inadequate 2m4f last time and Ruby Walsh rides Noland for Nicholls instead of riding for Mullins (I guess he had the choice) all point to giving this one a big swerve.

FOLLOW THE PLAN – Fortuitously won the Punchestown Gold Cup latest and is a serious horse when on song, chase record of 5-1-16 suggests more bad days than good but he can go well fresh and possible e/w chance at decent odds.

JONCOL – Chase record 6-5-13, lacked the pace to trouble Rubi Light over 2m4f last time and can get closer over a more suitable trip. Drying ground a worry but this C/D Grade 1 winner should make his presence felt.

MAGNANIMITY – Useful novice last season and chase record of 2-1-5, but the jury’s out on this year’s  second season chasers, lacks a run this term but has gone well fresh in the past. Best watched.

NOLAND – Very lightly raced but talented 10yo with a chase record of 5-2-8, conditions suit, goes well fresh and I expect him to be there or thereabouts come the finish.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE – Top novice last season and is clearly progressing into a smart stayer given his win at Down Royal last time. Chase record of 6-1-7. If he’s in touch two out he will be tough to beat but I feel we could take him on here over a trip possibly to short on ground not testing enough.

ROBERTO GOLDBACK – Switched stables since last fence(when clear) fall in Punchestowns Gold Cup and has shown nothing in two runs for new connections since. Needed a drop in class to score his latest win in April and best watched in this class.

RUBI LIGHT – Progressive chaser up to 2m5f and has a good chance of staying this 3m on drying ground, he may have enough speed to burn off the stayers to score here.

SYNCHRONISED – Very smart handicapper who stays all day, prefers softer ground and may find himself getting outpaced here but could run on late for a place.

VERDICT

It looks like a chance can be taken on RUBI LIGHT to continue his progression at the expense of Quito De La Roque & Noland.

2pts win Rubi Light @ 3/1 with Blue Sq or Victor Chandler.  2nd 9/4

1440 Hereford 2m5f Handicap Chase

MILO MILAN – Generally progressive profile under rules and made a winning chase debut in a handicap last time, up 10lbs though that may not stop him, conditions suit and will be there or thereabouts.

SHERWANI WOLF – Encouraging Chase debut in C/D handicap off OR 120 on ground plenty lively enough, off same mark here and conditions suit, though suspicion he’s best off a break of 40 days+

MUD MONKEY – Chase record 1-3-10, handicap record 1-3-7, UR on reappearance in better class race but under closer inspection he looks a dodgy jumper.

NATAANI – Chase debut, bumper winner on soft but sire’s progeny usually better on good ground, promise in three novice hurdles and could improve for chasing. Watch market for clues.

MALLUSK – Chase record 1-0-3, win coming on chase/handicap debut off OR 107, goes well fresh, both wins after a break and off OR 115 today must go close with conditions suiting (he stayed 3m in p2p’s).

BRADFORD BORIS – Career best two starts ago but never runs two races alike and not one to be confident about.

MYLORD COLLONGES – Chase record 5-5-16 and in class 4 has a record of 4-5-11, up 8lb for win last time out but conditions suit (would not want ground really soft tho’) and has a major E/W chance.

MAGOT DE GRUGY – Two decent runs this term (put up 9lb) and a chase record of 2-7-14 in handicaps proves he’s ultra consistent but he may find one or two younger ones a bit too quick for him.

NOMADIC WAY – Chase record 2-0-4, progressed nicely over fences Feb – Mar 2011 and more to come off 5lb higher if fully wound up on first appearance since.

DONT TELL SAILOR – Up in class and record of 0-0-5 in class 4 suggests he can’t handle it, best form on better ground and dismissed.

RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE – Fell both chase starts and maiden under both codes( 0-1-10 total record), best watched.

VERDICT

A tricky race to solve but the pin has landed on Mallusk over Milo Milan, he’ll be certainly trying for his life as connections wouldn’t want to waste his first run of the campaign given his previous record when fresh and rates a good bet. Mylord Collonges is a cracking E/W bet as well given his record in this class.

1pt win Mallusk @ 5/1 with bet365  p/u 5/1

1pt E/W Mylord Collonges @ 14/1 with bet 365  unplaced 12/1

1435 Ludlow 3m Handicap Chase

Sorry its a bit late today, family commitments called but i've looked at the 1435 at Ludlow and heres my considered opinion.

CAST CADA – Only win over fences was a lucky one, no show on reappearance though could feasibly come on for that run but may need better ground than he’s going to encounter here.

FORT VIEW – Ex-Hunter who’s rules record is 1-0-4(w-p-r), 2lb higher than last win but well beaten  both starts this term and best watched for now.

TEN FIRES – Was getting involved in the finish but crashed out at the final fence on his last run in Ireland, debut for new yard and if conditions worsen then he could become an e/w player.

EDGEOVER – Chase record 1-1-5, resumed over hurdles after 538 day layoff due to injury finishing a well held 3^rd, back over fences here off 9lb higher than his hurdle mark and may struggle over trip possibly too far.

TIME FOR SPRING – Promising Chase debut in Oct & ran well in hot Cheltenham handicap next start, he has more to offer over 3m, conditions suit, tho’ he would not want it too soft. Major Player.

MADE IN TIME – Useful hurdler, 1-0-2 over fences, UR last time but dangerous to dismiss as conditions suit here, though I have a sneaking suspicion that he’s better going left handed.

PYRACANTHA – Looks to be on the downgrade, dropped 20lb in 7 runs, possibly needs better ground and easily dismissed.

CHESAPEAKE – Chase record 2-2-7 but all form on better ground, PU latest and best watched.

BATTLECRY – Trainer has 50% record in this race so one to consider, broke his chase maiden last time (1-10-26 over fences), up 8lb and should be there at the finish with conditions suiting.

ALWAYS BOLD – Didn’t enjoy chasing when last tried, in and out over hurdles since and best watched on return to fences.

ONLY WITNESS – Chase record 0-1-4 but best run last time up 5lb for that effort but capable claimer on board here and there could be more to come, shortlisted.

VERDICT         

I’m left with a shortlist of three and am keen to take on the likely fav Made In Time, so Time For Spring is the one with improvement expected, Only Witness and Battlecry can bustle him up.

Time For Spring 1pt win @ 3/1 with bet365 2nd at 3/1

Bangor Thoughts

This is a copy of my post on Bob's blog copied here for archive purposes.


Bangor Thoughts

1240 - This looks on paper to be a really weak Class 4 chase and as such, I'm
going to take a chance on Tafika, conditions suit and in form trainer says a mark of 113 is workable.

1310 - Nicky Henderson trained hurdle newcomer Featherintheattic has been smashed in the betting, trainer jockey combo has a excellent course S/R but Kings Grace could be the value as he's really highly regarded by McCain and even though it was disappointing to see him so quickly beaten last time he deserves another chance to build on that debut promise. The stewards enquired into his running, but connections could offer no explanation.

1340 - Makes no appeal as a betting medium.

1410 - Rowen Tiger appears to have been found an opportunity to score here and looks a solid fav. Bathwick Brave and Doynosaur can fill the places.

1440 - The Jennie Candlish trained Ebony River should take all the beating on all known form. It looks a poor race to me and one in which this former Donald McCain in-mate can finally get off the mark after a couple of placed efforts. There is plenty of room for improvement in his jumping department, but he is still lightly raced over hurdles and majority of his mistakes are just novicey errors which will be ironed out with experience. As a son of Alderbrook the soft ground will hold absolutely no terrors for him and I fully expect this one to be stepping up to the plate tomorrow, and registering a first career success under rules.

1510 - Royal Reverie - Curtis / McCoy team up here with this newcomer who was rated 75 on the flat, this looks solid e/w material.

1400 Plumpton 3m2f Handicap Chase.

NEAR THE WATER – Has been running well in two starts this season, course winner and soft conditions suit but question mark over stamina. If he stays he will be involved in the finish.

MZURI BAY – Seems to like Plumpton and trainer has a 25% S/R here but horse has no form on soft ground, folded quite tamely over hurdles last time out and can be dismissed.

RATEABLE VALUE – Generally progressive over fences (W-P-R 1-3-4) and conditions suit but fitness must be taken on trust.

REBLIS – Gamely landed first win in twelve chase starts last time out (up 2lb) but that was on G/F and his record with soft in it is 0-3-11.

DUNKELLY CASTLE – Wants a easy, flat track to be seen at best and has shown nothing in two runs for current connections  so one to swerve here.

JORDAN – Chase debut, rated 96 over hurdles, running off 100 today, can go well fresh & conditions suit, one to note in the betting.

ITS A CLASSIC – Has (W-P-R 3-5-16) a 50% record in chases and rallied well for pressure last time over C/D to finish 2^nd, on same mark of 99, conditions suit and must go close.

BRUNETTE´SONLY – Maiden who can only be watched on Chase debut. Rated 90 over hurdles

PORTRAIT ROYALE – C/D & going suit & 2lb below last winning mark, but rather tame reappearance over C/D two weeks ago and needs to show more.

ZIMBABWE – 11yo with one win in last 25 starts, that was over C/D from 18lb out of the handicap on soft ground last time out, up 9lb taking everything into account  and hard to see him defying rise.

BALLINHASSIG – Has shown very little, is 33lbs out of the weights and is readily dismissed.

VERDICT

So im left with four against the field Near The Water who has a stamina doubt, Rateable Value who if fit can show up well, Its A Classic who must go close based on his latest run over C/D and Jordan who is a live E/W shot at best priced 14/1.

1pt win Its A Classic @ 5/1 with Ladbrooks   2nd at 7/2

0.5pt E/W – Jordan @ 14/1 with Paddy Power    p/u

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Welcome to my blog. It is my intention to guide the reader towards a winning strategy and ultimately profit by playing the horses. I shall be utilizing various methods to pick my selections as well as backing other animals put forward by my fellow blogger's whom i feel have something to add to my portfolio/profits. I shall be starting with a bank of £100 and all my bets will be at B.O.G. and will be based on points 1pt to 3pt's being the strongest. I aim to keep this up for at least a year to keep a check of my betting and to iron out and improve my mindset to become a winner. So I hope you enjoy the ride and lets hope its a profitable one.