Doncaster 1445 BetVictor.com Summit Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2

Away from Cheltenham we go as we travel north to Doncaster for a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle, only the seven runners up for this fourteen and a half grand contest so let’s have a look at them.

Sametegal from the Nicholls yard won nicely on his English debut at Wetherby, jumping well despite looking a little green still. A hurdles winner in France in the spring he looks a very nice prospect and despite giving away 3lbs improvement looks assured and he holds a big chance.

Counsel was tailed off on heavy ground at Aintree on his hurdle debut he ran as if he hated the ground but needed the experience; he then won easily on his next start at Bangor in a first time tongue tie, he jumps well and is open to progression, especially on better ground.

Kashmir Peak jumped well and powered away from his rivals in a weak hurdle at Market Rasen on his debut but this a lot tougher, from a yard who does well with its 3yo’s he has the scope to improve and could well be there pitching in at the finish.

Outback looks to be well outclassed.

Vasco Du Ronceray won as he liked on his hurdle debut at Hereford and was duly upped in grade next time where he finished a good second to Far West at Cheltenham finishing a long way clear of the field he looks a nice juvenile and is sure to be there at the finish.

Lysino looks to face a very stiff task on his hurdle debut.

Mashaari A winner at York over two and a quarter miles for John Gosden, he beat Cape Tribulation on that occasion he looks a nice type for hurdles, he’s reportedly schooled well and from a yard that knows the score he could go well.

Verdict

There’s  a lot of potential in this field but for win purposes I can’t look beyond Nicholls and Hendersons  Sametegal & Vasco Du Ronceray. You had to be impressed with the way Vasco travelled at Cheltenham but Nicholls has a line on him through Far West and at the prices and despite the 3lb extra he has to carry Sametegal looked very classy when winning at Wetherby and with improvement guaranteed he’s the one to be on.

Sametegal win single @ 9/4 with Victor and Paddy.

Cheltenham Friday

Todays racing looks quality and going through the cards Broadback Bob looks solid in the first but Super Duty in receipt of 5lbs could give him a lot to think about.

In the 1245 I like the look of two, Plein Pouvoir and Sound Stage both of whom can be weak finishers but both are on workable marks, Plein Pouvoir is 1lb above his last winning mark but looking at his Cheltenham record of 67P he might not like the track. Sound Stage on the other hand is a previous winner of this race(2009) who has been racing over 3m which he does not stay, so his mark of 113 looks reasonable, his trainer had a winner and a second yesterday at Taunton and at 10/1 currently looks good e/w value.

The 1320 looks a typically tricky Cheltenham Handicap but the one that jumps out at me is Harry Fry's Bold Chief you can draw a line through his reappearance run as he was found to have a problem after the race, this has now been cleared up and I believe he is on a winnable mark off 135, all his racing has been done over further but this test should suit him today and at 18/1 currently he again looks a good e/w shout.

The Grade 3 Handicap Chase looks between Bradley and Quartz de Thaix and with Bradley possibly getting caught up in a battle for the lead with Midnight Chase that should set it up for Quartz de Thaix who at 9/2 looks a good bet.

I've passed on the cross country and handicap hurdle but the novice event which closes the card looks interesting, Nicky Henderson has won the last three running's of this and his Royal Boy could be interesting if market vibes are about. Valdez is well regarded and won well at Huntingdon on his latest run he should improve again and will be thereabouts. Melodic Rendezvous is potentially very useful and ran well enough on his hurdling debut, but I have a feeling he needs better ground to be seen at his best. All of which leads us to the northern raider Eduard who was just touched off on his hurdle debut by subsequent handicap scorer Ifandbutwhynot, he then hacked up at Newcastle on his next start and deserves to take his chance in this higher grade and at 9/2 i've had a little play.

Bets

1355 Quartz de Thaix @ 9/2
1540 Eduard @ 9/2

1410 Aintree - 3m2f Becher Chase

The Becher Chase is a 3m2f Listed Handicap over the famous National fences at Aintree, it generally seems to be quite an open contest with recent winners up to 33/1. Applying some simple trends we’ll try and narrow the field and get a handle on this 16 runner race. Firstly it seems horses aged 11+ have a very poor record with only a single win from 29 attempts, so out go Ballabriggs, Swing Bill, Mumbles Head, In Complience and Hello Bud.

 Next up I looked at breeding and found out that 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred and even more so British and French breeds had only supplied 2 winners from 60 runners, with such strong breeding stats I dived into the dosage and found that 16 of the last 17 winners had more than 10 dosage points in their profile when totalled, 14/17 had a DI of 1.13 or below and 15/17 had a CD of 0.40 or below which all points to a stamina based pedigree, on dosage figures then out go Big Fella Thanks, Mumbles Head, Gullible Gordon and Ballyvesey.  On the other breeding angle we must throw out Big Fella Thanks, Midnight Haze, Poker De Sivola, Problema Tic and Swing Bill.

Moving onto the way previous race’s have panned out we find out that 13 out of the past 17 winners have been front runners or raced prominently so we now lose Ballabriggs, Big Fella Thanks, Problema Tic, Mumbles Head, Poker De Sivola, In Complience, Minella Theatre and Ballyvessy.

So now on my reckoning we’re left with four solid contenders based on trends which are as follows

Join Together – Should leave reappearance run behind him and strip a lot fitter here as record shows he needs a run to put him straight, he has some decent novice form in the book, is open to improvement and jumps well in the main but my concern is the field size as his best runs have come in races with no more than six runners, his record in big fields is 7P.

West End Rocker – Last years winner and back again off 5lb higher in almost identical conditions to defend his crown, excellent reappearance run at Wincanton when 3^rd behind The Package should have put him straight for this and big player if he completes but with Choc Thornton in the plate (0/13 on the horse) and at a best priced 11/2 I’d rather look elsewhere.

Any Currency – Won well at Wincanton on reappearance and followed that up with a solid 4^th in a decent Cheltenham handicap, dropped 1lb he looks to have a decent chance here if he’s on a going day as he usually needs lots of assistance from the saddle. He stays all day and will appreciate the test the ground is going to give.

Fabalu – Usually comes on for his reappearance so don’t read too much into his well beaten 5^th here in October. Trainer has tried to prepare him for the last two runnings of this race but unfortunately injury has prevented him from taking his chance. Conditions suit today and off 131 I can see him placing at least. He has some decent placed efforts to his name off 2lb lower and has ability so let’s hope he puts that all together today and let’s take some of the 20/1 with Ladbrokes & Hills each way.

Bet

Fabalu  1pt each-way @ 20/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills

1435 Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle Class 2

Off we go to Newbury for this 0-150 Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f, the top weight is 12lbs below the ceiling and there’s only 16lbs between the ten runners so its a tight affair on official ratings. Let’s have a look at the runners.

Topolski – Hasn’t won since going unbeaten in 3 in his novice season 2010/2011, conditions suit but on current form doesn’t look up to this.

Kingcora – One win and three places in five hurdle races in France, first start for Venetia Williams after 406 days off. Yard does well with French imports but hard to know what to expect, stable amongst the winners but Newbury handicap hurdle record is one win from six runners. If gambled on take heed.

Princely Player – Jumped sloppily on return in a decent listed novice event at Kempton but still managed to stay on into 2^nd, longer trip will suit today and there should be more to come from this promising sort.

Star Of Angels – Six pounds higher than last win and shown nothing in last three runs but this his easiest task for some time, can go well fresh and each way claims at best. Trainer has a 43% strike rate in handicap hurdles at Newbury.

Passato – Hasn’t contested a hurdle race for nearly three years and hasn’t looked at his best in last three chase starts (jumping badly right in all three), so this looks a sweetener to restore some confidence.

Hunting Tower – First start for Tim Vaughan and on his UK Hurdles form (11112) off 125 he possibly looks well in based on his 2^nd at Hexham off 131 in June but rise in class and slower ground against him.

Salubrious – Should improve on reappearance run in better race(though form of race not really working out 1 win, 0 places from 8 runners) off the same mark here and this nice horse should be bang on the premises.

Scots Gaelic – First start for Tim Vaughan and showed good form both on the flat and over hurdles in Ireland, decent 2^nd on handicap debut but drying ground may find him out.

Ardlui – Trainer thinks this is an improving type and after his recent Newmarket handicap victory it’s hard to argue with him, this race is his stated target and with conditions to suit a big run is expected.

At Fishers Cross – Didn’t win on his reappearance as his 4/7 price said he should and trainer obviously not confident he can defy a penalty in another novice, he could improve for the step up in trip but drying ground possibly against him as trainer has said he likes plenty of cut.

Verdict

Its hard to see past Ardlui considering his recent flat improvement and quotes from his trainer in the media. Princely Player and Salubrious look the dangers and Kingcora could become a live danger if market vibes develop. For those who like to play each-way at a bigger price then look no further than Star Of Angels.

Bet

2pt win Ardlui @ 11/4 Hills & Ladbrokes.