ANTE POST Hennessy Gold Cup 3m2f Grade 3 Handicap

Well the best handicap chase of the season is almost upon us and after applying some quick trends I’m left with a shortlist of ten from the current twenty-two entries.

Bobs Worth – He has a cracking attitude, looks a thorough stayer and this strong travelling type could prove up to this mark (160) on route to a crack at the Gold Cup and is a worthy favourite but on the flipside he has never raced on ground as potentially soft as he’ll encounter on Saturday and the RSA form is showing only 1 winner from 18 runners.

First Lieutenant – Has ran his best races on better ground including a good 2^nd to Bobs Worth in the RSA, his weight difference here shouldn’t entitle him to reverse that form but he is a decent animal in his own right and should have no trouble with the trip. His last 5 runs on a left hand flat track have been 11122.

Hold On Julio – Sketchy jumper who after only 7 runs is undoubtedly well treated off 148, staying on 3^rd on reappearance at Cheltenham in October with 2 winners coming out of the race already bodes well but his record left handed is 1 win from 5 (PP103) and he was pulled up on his only run on soft ground.

Tatenen – Last seen unseating his rider at the canal turn in the National, Grade 1 placed as a novice his next worthwhile run was 2 years later at Ascot when popping up in a 44 grand handicap off 137 he then repeated the feat a year later off 143, going off 147 here and considering his general profile I don’t think he’ll appreciate the test he’s facing here.

The Package – Stayed on well to win the Badgers Ales Handicap at Wincanton last time off 139 up 8lbs so off 147 here but has been well beaten off that mark in decent handicaps twice, trip, track and ground should all suit but I don’t think he has the class to be involved.

Saint Are – Gamely won a valuable handicap at Aintree in the spring off 137 and trainer stated in an interview that he has strengthened over the summer and has progressed so well that the Hennessy has become a possible target so a mark of 145 should prove well within his grasp. His overall record suggest he is a spring horse wanting decent ground but he has solid each-way claims at best.

Diamond Harry – Not been at his best since winning the 2010 Hennessy and pulled up last three runs, need to see a bit more before you could seriously consider backing him.

 Harry The Viking – Would not want the ground to testing and has been pulled up on his latest 2 starts but has a nice light weight and this thorough stayer could run well based on his 2^nd in the NH Chase at the festival in the spring. Trainer states he’s not a definite runner due to conditions.

Soll – Brought down when travelling well in the NH Chase at the festival, this unexposed sort really is the fly in the ointment as he could be thrown in here off 139. He’s only had 4 races, easily winning his Novice Hurdle on his racecourse debut, then just failing by a neck 11 months later on his Chase debut, he then won his beginners chase a month later @ 2/5 before being brought down at Cheltenham, conditions will suit here.  Interesting.

Alfie Spinner – Decent reappearance at Ascot and will love conditions if it remains heavy but I believe the Welsh National is the big target for this horse and I’d be surprised if he is tuned up enough to win both.

Verdict

This race tends to be won by a progressive second season chaser and with this year’s crop looking a lot better than last year’s second season chaser’s I’m expecting normal progress to be resumed.  Bobs Worth has a touch of the Trabolgan’s about him and will have to go very close off this mark if he’s to be a force in the Gold Cup come March, in fact he will have to be as good as Denman was when he took this race for the first time in 2007. Others worth noting are Hold On Julio who is definitely well in off his mark and Alan King has stated in today’s (Tuesdays) Racing Post he will act on the soft so he has to come into the reckoning.  Saint Are is another second season chaser who if we overlook his preference for the spring has place claims as this test should suit him well. Finally Soll, the dark horse, how good is he, why did Willie Mullins sell him on, is he thrown in off 139? Well I don’t know the answer to any of those questions but i do know at 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills he’s worth a cheeky £5 each-way.

Bets

Soll  1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes & Hills)

Hold On Julio 0.5pt win @ 7/1 (Tote, Ladbrokes)

1520 Ascot 2m1f Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Small field go to post but some familiar names line up for this 30 grand handicap.  Trends say were looking for a front running/prominent 6 to 9yo who won or placed last time out. So let’s see what we find.

Tanks For That – Improved throughout last season going from 140 to 155 in the ratings. Goes well fresh but may not have much improvement left and soft ground not in his favour. Trainer has a good strike rate at track and place claims at best.

Champion Court – Handicap debut and looked a decent chaser last season culminating in good seconds at Cheltenham behind Sir De Champs and Aintree behind Silviniaco Conti. Goes well fresh but trip a concern as best form over further.

Mad Max – Dropped 3lbs for reappearance Aintree 4^th and goes well on soft ground but does not fit the profile of a race winner and is passed over.

Pepite Rose – 10lb higher than last handicap win, staying on 3^rd over C/D on reappearance but possibly better going left handed over further.

Toubab – Brought down when going really well in the Grand Annual , can go well fresh and is reasonably weighted  but always makes a mistake in his races and I believe he is essentially a good ground performer.

Marodima – Up 8lbs for easy win in Fontwell Handicap and can go well from the front again here, he’s been placed off a higher mark, goes well in a small field and acts on the ground. This is the toughest assignment he’s faced for a while but he could spring a surprise.

Williams Wishes – Handicap debut for this unbeaten chaser who has been very impressive in his three novice wins the last of which was in Jan 11, off track for 664 days and a leap of faith required to back him after absence with only run at this level resulting in a well beaten 7^th.

Verdict

Concern over the market leaders ability to act on the ground draws me towards Marodima who can slip the field and make a bold bid from the front. Champion Court can chase him home.

1point win Marodima @ 12/1 with bet365

Grade 3 Racing Post Hurdle

Its an interesting race for sure, here's some of the stronger stats.

ONLY 2 FOUR YEAR OLDS have won since 1988 (DETROIT CITY (2006) & BRAMPOUR (2011)). So it looks like you have to be an exceptional youngster to take this.
ALL of the last 20 winners had won over 2 miles in the past.
18 of the last 20 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED 129 +
14 of the last 17 winners had won one or more of their last THREE STARTS.

So applying those stats your left with a shortlist of Moon Dice, Rattan, Cash And Go, Domination, Constant Contact, Dark Lover & Hunters Belt.

Lets see who off this shortlist goes on the ground

Rattan
Cash And Go
Domination
Dark Lover
Hunters Belt

Now lets look at the shortlist and see who like's running round an undulating track.

Cash And Go
Domination
Dark Lover

Now off this shortlist lets see who like running in big fields.

Cash And Go
Domination
Dark Lover

So they all pass the test on this score.

Lets now look at the three contenders we have left

Cash And Go - looks favourably treated off 141 and has reportedly pleased Nicky Henderson since joining him during the summer. Unbeaten on his seasonal reappearances, he will be ridden by Barry Geraghty. Everything looks in place for a big run.

Domination - won the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket in September by four and a half lengths (runner-up won five times this season) off a mark of 77. He is a dual winner over hurdles and he finished a nose second behind prolific winner Baily Green at Killarney in September. He is ten pounds higher now but he is relatively unexposed.

Dark Lover - is unbeaten in three races over hurdles and is rated 131. Absent due to injury from February 2011 until October this year, he made a successful return by beating the improving Changing The Guard by four lengths at Cheltenham. Eleven pounds higher now, he is unexposed and will go well off a light weight.

SELECTIONS

Cash And Go - win single @ 6/1
Dark Lover - e/w @ 14/1

Hexham

With Bostons Angel falling when challenging and Get Off The Stage finishing 3rd yesterday's Irish tips were a case of close but no cigar. Just the one selection for today and its up north to Hexham for the 2m handicap Hurdle at 1400. Livvy Inn is the one to be with here, he ran well at Carlisle on Sunday is kicking the stable door off at home according to Lucinda Russell and has dropped to a handy mark of 95, front runners go well over this C/D so he needs to be up with the pace but I can't see any reason why he wont win this very modest race.

Bets

1400 Hexham - Livvy Inn  win single @ 11/4  (1st @ 85/40)

Thurles

Bostons Angel looks a decent bet at 11/2 in the Listed Chase over at Thurles today. Jessica Harrington's string are in decent form and this former Grade One winner who lost his way last season has his easiest opportunity to score over fences for quite a while. A couple of runs over hurdles should have restored some confidence and all things point to a big run here. Roi Du Me looks a danger and will be hard to pass but I believe Bostons Angel is on his way back.

The maiden hurdle at 1455 looks very open and you can make a case for quite a few of them but Get Off The Stage comes here in good form and has Barry Geraghty booked for his only ride of the day. This is very much a speculative punt as he leapt off the page at me but more often than not it pays to follow your intuition.

BETS

1325 Thurles  Bostons Angel   win single @ 11/2   (Fell @ 4/1)
1455 Thurles  Get Off The Stage   win single @ 4/1   (3rd @ 5/1)

Exeter Tuesday 6th November 2012

What a fantastic card we have today from Exeter, the NH season is really getting into full swing and now's a very exciting time with expectations for the season ahead running high.

The opening novice hurdle at 1350 looks a very hot race, I reluctantly dismiss Gas Line Boy as novices with penalties very rarely win at Exeter, I guess this is due to the quality of horses who make there debut here. Alberobello has progressed well with racing and would have won last time with a better jockey on board. Atlantic Roller was disappointing in two bumpers last season but has strengthened over the summer and could be useful. Salmanazar is a bumper winner who's schooled well and is his in form trainer's and jockey's only runner/ride of the day. The Potting Shed looks interesting as his trainer always introduces her better novices here and this big, rangy animal could out run his price of 10/1 the only negative is the yards runners have been needing the run.

The 2m1f novice hurdle at 1420 is between Billy Twford and Landscape and preference is for the Nicholl's horse as he should come on for his 6th at Cheltenham and prove hard to pass here.

The Haldon Gold Cup is up next and Cue Card looks to have the edge at these weights, unbeaten on his seasonal reappearance he put Menorah in his place at Cheltenham last March and can confirm that form here.

The novice chase at 1520 looks at Hinterland's mercy as he dotted up on his reappearance in a handicap hurdle, he's his trainer's number one Arkle hope and he should make a winning chase debut here.

A 3m handicap chase follows and 6 year old's don't seem to win these at Exeter so the likely Nicholl's favourite is passed over in preference for the 10yo Richards Sundance who can go well fresh, likes Exeter and has dropped to a decent mark.

The closing 3m handicap hurdle looks very poor with nothing standing out.

Bets

1350 The Potting Shed  e/w @ 10/1   (6th @ 20/1)
1420 Landscape win single @ 13/8    (1st @ 11/8)
1550 Richards Sundance win single @ 4/1  (1st @ 9/2)

Sunday 4th November 2012

Yesterdays four selections all missed the target, a very disappointing day on the whole. I thought Fill The Power was left with far to much to do in the novice chase at Wetherby and will still be of interest in the future, providing he gets a better ride. Ace High's run was particularly bad, the jockey reported he ran flat and the horse routinely tested.

Onto today then and lets hope the selection fairs better than yesterdays effort's, there's a decent handicap chase at Carlisle and I think Sue Smith's Rebel Swing looks a decent each-way bet at 10/1, a course winner last time out and up 6lbs for that effort, he handles the conditions well and is a real tough character who should be in the van all the way round. Sue has a decent record here with her handicap chasers and a big run is expected.

Bet

Rebel Swing  -  Each-way @ 10/1  (6th @ 15/2)

Saturday 3rd November 2012

What a great days’ racing we have today with meetings at Wetherby, Ascot and Ayr plus a couple of nice race's over at Down Royal.

We begin with the United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase, a Grade 3 event at Ascot where Ace High is a solid e/w bet at 5/1, I'm very keen on this horse and believe he will make a very good chaser in time and off 142 here he will take some stopping, I will be following him over the course of the season and think this race is his early season target. 
Staying at Ascot for my next bet which is in the 1615 NHF race where Rebecca Curtis's runner merits the upmost respect. Amifunnyyet made an encouraging debut three weeks ago and improvement looks a formality. 

Over to Wetherby and I like the look of Fill The Power in the 3m1f novice chase, he jumped well on his chase debut at Sedgefield, goes well fresh and his trainers chasers are running well at the moment. Keep an eye on Knockando with a view to the future as im sure this old fashioned chasing type will do well now he's been switched to fences.
Onto the feature race of the day the Charlie Hall Chase and im drawn to Time For Rupert as a value bet against the likely winner and favourite Silviniaco Conti. Time For Rupert ran well on a couple of occasions last season and he's always promised to be top class. He finished second in this race last year and can give the favourite the most to think about.

Bets  

Ascot 1510  Ace High e/w @ 5/1   (p/u @ 4/1)
Ascot 1615 Amifunnyyet  win single @ 9/2   (5th @ 5/1)

Wetherby 1340  Fill The Power  win single @ 3/1   (3rd @ 3/1)

Wetherby 1525  Time For Rupert  win single @ 9/2  (4th @ 3/1)