Thursdays Thoughts

Finally got some time to look at some racing, its good to see im still top of the Dataform naps table, heres hoping I can kick on today.

Over to Ireland first and I like the look of ARNAUD in the 1305 @ Gowran Park, I was taken by the manner of his victory at Limerick on the 28/12/11, it was a vast improvement on his bumper run and he won cosily on his hurdle debut.

The big race of the day @1505 is the Thyestes Handicap Chase and I quietly fancy WESTERN CHARMER  he has the size to carry a big weight and will strip a lot fitter than his last run @ Leopardstown over Christmas, he has some good Grade 1 form and is worth a few quid each way @ 25/1.

Off to the North East now and the one who takes my eye here is MAHFAL in the 1515, i've been waiting for him to step up in trip and over this 2m4f he should take all the beating.

And finally my local course Warwick, Alan King looks to have a few with big chances here today notably FIRE FIGHTER in the opening juvenile hurdle and GODSMEJUDGE in the 3m1f handicap hurdle, you also might want to throw in KEY TO THE WEST in to any multiples as he's McCoy's first ride back after his broken ribs and he's sure to be on a winner.





ADVICE
2pt's win ARNAUD in the 1305 @ Gowran Park @ 2/1 with bet365 BOG
2pt's win MAHFAL in the 1515 @ Newcastle @ 9/4 with bet365 BOG

Happy Punting

19-01-12 – 1550 - Taunton 2m3f Handicap Chase (2)

19-01-12 – 1550 - Taunton 2m3f Handicap Chase (2)

HOLMWOOD LEGEND – Cheltenham Festival handicap winner (off OR130) last season, now on OR145 and has shown nothing in two runs this term, 2-0-2(w-p-r) at Taunton, but his overall profile looks to be that of a Spring horse. Winter record 0-2-4 compared to Spring record of 3-2-6.

FISTRAL BEACH – Best when fresh as record shows 2-2-4(w-p-r) when break of 200 days plus. Has the class to be involved as Listed reappearance win shows but is a 54 day break enough and 2m3f looks a bit on the sharp side for him.

CHARIOT CHARGER - Returned from 20 months off to gain first win over fence last time out, up 8lb to OR138 and down in trip but he has conditions to suit and should go well if he doesn’t bounce.

MICHEAL FLIPS – Chase record of 1-1-5 (w-p-r) and best form when chasing Cue Card home on reappearance, not really gone on from that and down to winnable mark(has been backed this morning) but jumping looked a bit suspect last two runs in big fields.

PASSATO - Two decent efforts in good handicaps this season and only 3lb above last winning mark, conditions suit and should not be far away.

NOMECHEKI – Not always the best of jumpers, never won going right handed 0-1-4(w-p-r), best run since reappearance latest but not one to rely on.

ROUGHAM – Didn’t stay 2m5f latest but on winnable mark, needs to be able to dominate to run to his best, chance he’ll get taken on for the lead by Chariot Charger and down tools so overlooked.

GET IT ON – Chase record of 1-2-4(w-p-r) and looks progressive, conditions suit here and backed this morning so expected to be thereabouts off low weight.

MISTER STICKLER – Chase record of 2-2-9(w-p-r), sound jumper who possibly needs a bit more weight off to be competitive.

OUMEYADE – Looks to be on the decline and best avoided.

THE COCKNEY MACKEM – Consistent sort who doesn’t look the best of finishers, and step up in trip a concern.

VERDICT

Three against the field here Chariot Charger still looks well treated after his win last time, Passato looks solid E/W value but there is sure to be more to come from GET IT ON.

GET IT ON 1 point win @ 6/1 BOG with Victor Chandler.

Friday 13/01/12 - 1510 Musselburgh – 3m Handicap Chase (3)

1510 Musselburgh – 3m Handicap Chase (3)

KEY CUTTER – Front runner who won poor class 4 handicap in first time cheekpieces latest,  chase record of 2-3-8 (w-p-r) suggests possibility of more to come but has a career high mark OR125 to defy, has been beaten off OR122 in the past but conditions suit here.

SAFARI ADVENTURES – Out of form this season, down to a mark of OR123, last win June 2010 off OR120 , 0-0-4 (w-p-r) over 3m and dismissed today.

OR DE GRUGY – All four wins at Kelso and never won going right handed 0-3-12 (w-p-r), down to last winning mark OR120 but overlooked here.

FRED BOJANGALS – Course record 2-1-4(w-p-r) but has stamina to prove trying 3m for the first time. He could be in better form and would want genuine good ground or better. All things considered I’ll give him a miss.

KOSTA BRAVA – Chase record of 3-3-11 (w-p-r) and looked progressive over 2m for Howard Johnson last year, has shown nothing for new connections but maybe he’s a spring horse as his record is 2-1-4 from March to May.

LUTIN DU MOULIN – Up 9lb since easy Wetherby win in May, he could still be well handicapped here off OR112, conditions suit and this 13yo should be staying on at the finish.

SEIZE – Won at Doncaster two starts ago and up 6lb to OR112, looking through previous form tells me he needs to drop a few more pounds to be competitive again.

MORE EQUITY – Chase record of 1-6-15 (w-p-r) says she doesn’t win much but she’s back down to OR108 which is 1lb above her last winning mark, record right handed of 0-5-11 tempers enthusiasm somewhat as does winter record of 0-1-8.

ROSSINI’S DANCER – Dodgy jumper who possibly needs softer ground to be seen at his best. Decent claimer on board with first time visor, 3m suits and possibilities in a bad race.

EVERAAD – Not looked convincing over fences with form figures of P-P-3, good win here last time out over hurdles and if translating that effort he holds a big chance, but it’s a big if.

VERDICT

This doesn’t look a particularly good race and few are coming here in form over fences, I can’t have Everaard on his chase form, I can’t have Rossini’s Dancer until he jumps better, Lutin Du Moulin will be staying on and this 13yo is worth a small E/W investment So that leaves the pin to fall on Key Cutter to make the long trip up from Oxfordshire worthwhile.

1pt win KEY CUTTER @ 7/2 with Bet365 B.O.G

0.5 pt E/W LUTIN DU MOULIN @ 14/1 with Bet365 B.O.G

Monday 1510 Taunton 3m Handicap Hurdle

Well after Niceonefrankie's win Bet365's free bet offer has tempted me to play the 1510 at Taunton tomorrow & after a few hours of analysis heres my thoughts.

1510 Taunton 3m 1/2f Handicap Hurdle Class 4

TIGRE D’ARON – Disappointing on handicap & trainer debut at Cheltenham latest but too soon to write him off after only 3 runs 1-0-3 (w-p-r). Down in class and up in trip so has to be worth a second look.

PAVILLON BLEU – Hurdle record is 0-3-9, four runs this season all poor and cannot recommend until signs of improvement are forthcoming.

CARRIBS LEAP – Progressive hurdler (2-1-5) who should improve further over this trip and handle the ground as he’s by Old Vic.  Well beaten on seasonal reappearance/ handicap debut but could have needed the run, mark of 118 unchanged.  Interesting.

DANTARI – Best run this season last time out here over 2m3f & ran well in a number of good handicaps last season plus he’s now 4lb below his last winning mark, on the other hand he doesn’t want ground this soft and 3miles may stretch him.

QUINTE DU CHATELET – Not shown much since returning from injury, best effort latest but still 3lb higher than last winning mark & I would like to see a bit more before parting with any cash.

MAC FEDERAL – Not seen over hurdles since 2007. Wide margin winner of handicap off same mark 4 runs ago (24/02/07) and showed from a flat run at Lingfield in April he retains some ability. Definitely worth a market check to see if connections are having a nibble.

OTTER MIST – Not the quickest but last time out C/D 4^th is promising, down 1lb to OR111 and he could come into this late on.

PHILADELPHUS – Handicap debut OR111, ran with promise over 2m4f last time out, interesting up in trip here but doesn’t always look a natural over his hurdles though there’s certainly scope for progress.

CARRICKMINES – Better known as a chaser but exploited hurdles mark two runs ago, ran better at Ascot than it looked last time& back down in class here. Conditions suit and should be thereabouts.

MADAME JASMINE – Handicap record of 1-0-5 & ran credibly over trip to far on return last time but 5lb above last winning mark and needs to show more.

SOVEREIGN SPIRIT – Needs better ground and well tailed off last 3 starts, leave alone until the spring.

VERDICT

Considering everything  Tigre D’Aron has to rate a danger but will be plenty short enough in the betting, Carribs Leap looks interesting and has solid E/W claims, a market move for Mac Federal would be significant and Otter Mist will be staying on late. But all this leads me to Carrickmines who should go very close down in class, with conditions to suit and on an attractive hurdles mark.

CARRICKMINES 1pt Win @9/2 with Paddy Power.  1st 11/4

Sunday 8th January 2012 - 1530 Hereford 2m5f Handicap Chase

1530 Hereford 2m5f Handicap Chase

CABINET MINISTER – Has progressed both starts over fences but room for improvement in the jumping dept, 4lb lower than last winning hurdles mark and backed this morning. Soft ground suits but is 0-0-4 (w-p-r) on a flat track.

PLUNKET – Jumping fell to pieces last two runs and best watched for now.

JIGSAW DANCER – Chase record of 1-0-10 suggests more bad runs than good and hardly shaped like he was still interested in competing last time.

BABE HEFFRON - Completely out of sorts for new yard in recent months, coming down the handicap but needs to show more before considering.

SPACE MISSION – Solid return when just beaten last time and should come on for the run, conditions suit and looks likely to be involved.

ALWAYS BOLD - Posted a fair effort on his return to fences last time out and he will be competitive off this mark (or109) but 0-0-4 on a right handed track and possibly better over further.

DOURYNA – Chase record of 1-2-9 and awful run last time but coming here off a break of 64 days and goes well fresh, top 7lb claimer booked and big run expected if jumping holds together.

DANEVA – Consistent at her level but looked ill at ease on the soft at Fontwell latest, similar conditions here and record suggests better on firmer ground so overlooked.

NICEONEFRANKIE – Outpaced and well beaten on chase debut but showed promise there and longer trip and softer ground should suit here, he should build on that experience and will go well here.

VERDICT

I’ll discount Cabinet Minister on his flat track record & Douryna on jumping grounds, so that leaves me with Space Mission & Niceonefrankie. They both look to hold solid claims and im going to go with the younger horse in Niceonefrankie

1pt win NICEONEFRANKIE @ 11/4 WITH BET365 B.O.G. (won 9/2)

1405 Sandown 2m Handicap Chase

1405 Sandown 2m Handicap Chase

TANKS FOR THAT – Front runner who improved to win on reappearance, fell last time when holding every chance, up 9lb and conceding plenty of weight to some promising types here. Should run his race but looks a bit too high in the handicap.

DAVE’S DREAM – Still 10lb above last winning mark, best on good ground and Geraghty prefers Tanks For That. Overlooked.

KING EDMUND – Front runner who has a consistent profile, up 7lb for latest win and conditions suit here but  career high mark to defy and up in class, he possibly wants a bit further too.

PRET A THOU – Front runner who’s chase record is 6-4-27 so he looks exposed but ran a career best last time and even though this is a better race and he would prefer softer conditions he has solid E/W claims.

HOLD FAST – His jumping didn’t look convincing over 2m on his reappearance and is possibly more comfortable over further, saying that he should come on for the run and looks a player.

NOMECHEKI – Two poor efforts in better company last twice and overall profile none to consistent, overlooked.

RILEYEV – Progressive animal, chase record of 6-4-14(w-p-r), conditions suit and big run expected again.

DARCEYS DANCER - Hasn't convinced with his jumping and does’nt strike me as being good enough as his handicap chase record of 0-1-5 suggests.

ALL FOR FREE - Tough assignment off mark of 124 (7lb higher than last win) in better class, but is a young improving horse and should be involved in the finish.

VERDICT

If I discount Tanks For That on weight carried and Hold Fast on trip and jumping, then that leaves me with Pret A Thou who has a solid e/w shout but is totally exposed from a win perspective, Rileyev who should run his usual solid race again and All For Free who as an unexposed novice off a light weight should make his presence felt here.

1pt win All For Free @ 11/2 with bet365 BOG  2nd 9/2

Saturday 7th January 2012 – 1510 - 3m 1/2f Handicap Chase - Sandown

NEPTUNE COLLONGES – Last two wins were in small fields but 2lb lower than last winning mark and staying on 4^th last time out reads well, his January-February record is 3-1-4 (w-p-r) and is worth a second look for e/w purposes.

MASTER OF THE HALL – Handicap debut off 150 looks within his grasp, easy win on reappearance beating a winner who has won again since, conditions suit here and only concern is his preference for smaller fields.

WYMOTT – Shown nothing this season in two handicap runs, running especially poorly last time, kept on same mark and best watched until signs of improvement.

EXMOOR RANGER – Won on reappearance and up 7lb, still looks well treated and can go close here with a clear round.

THE PANAMA KID – Generally progressive this term, completing hat-trick in November. Up 6lb since last win and bit more required in a competitive handicap such as this so needs to improve again on first attempt beyond 2m6f.

THE KNOXS – Respected back over fences as his chase mark is 11lb lower than his hurdle mark but I would like to see him put in a clear round before backing him, especially over Sandown’s fences.

BE THERE IN FIVE – 1-2-6 (w-p-r) is his chase record and he doesn’t look the most natural chaser but he could improve for a second season especially over a trip in excess of this one, best watched on seasonal reappearance.

QHILIMAR – Looks to need a gap between races to win so 8 day absence is a negative also looks out classed as his record in class 2 and above races is 0-0-8. Overlooked.

ANY CURRENCY – Thorough stayer who was pulled up in Welsh National latest, if fully recovered he can go well here, 2-3-8 in handicaps he is still ahead of his mark of 133 in my opinion and rates a solid e/w shot.

HOLD ON JULIO – Racing off a 16lb higher mark (including 3lb oh) than impressive C/D reappearance win (he beat nothing in hindsight) but he looks a very progressive animal (3 p2p & a hunter chase win in 2011) and can go very close off a feather weight.

VERDICT

Hold On Julio gets the vote here as this progressive animals trainer is showing great confidence by running him from out of the handicap in this valuable chase. Master Of The Hall can go well if adapting to this bigger field and Any Currency will be staying on through beaten horses at the finish.

2pts win Hold On Julio @ 7/2 with Bet365 BOG  1st 5/2