Greeting folks, had a little holiday since my last post and back now fully refreshed. Today's NH action is from Haydock Park and the 3m Handicap Chase at 1510 is the race Im focusing on.
Buffalo Bob has conditions to suit here, though softer ground will increase his chances. He's had a wind operation since his last run can go well fresh and is a front runner who will give a good account.
Vincitore ran really well last time on reappearance and up 5lbs but he has yet to win a handicap from seven attempts, up in class here and ground maybe too soft.
Ballybough Gorta has taken really well to chasing with four wins and two seconds, up 3lbs for latest run and should be on the scene providing ground not to soft.
Allanard produced a career best five days ago but generally inconsistent and not the best of jumpers, race record suggests that this run may come to soon.
Satou has ability, three miles suits but he wouldn't want it too soft, he's well in off 115 and if fully tuned up for reappearance he's respected. Race record suggests he will come on for the run.
Verdict
Buffalo Bob by process of elimination looks the one here even though his trainers stated he's only 90% fit as his early season target is next month at Newbury. Satou is respected as a threat but his record suggests he will come on for the run.
Bets
Buffalo Bob win single @ 5/1
Wednesday 31 October 2012
Wednesday 24 October 2012
Wednesday 24th October 2012
My two selections both needed the run yesterday and are ones to keep a close eye on over the course of the season, money lent definitely. Onto today then and my selections come from Fontwell & Worcester. In the 1410 at Worcester, a 2m4f handicap chase Golden Chieftain looks well in off a mark of 127 and I think he has plenty more to offer after a fast finishing fifth at Chepstow on his reappearance eleven days ago, his record suggests he needs his reappearance run so he should strip a lot fitter today. The main danger is Double Ross from the Twiston-Davies yard who is potentially a very nice horse, he ran well on his chase debut just being touched off by Jump City at Newton Abbot and improvement looks assured, anything over 13/2 and I'd seriously consider backing him each-way.
Over to Fontwell and the 2m6f Handicap Chase at 1525 where Venetian Lad is the selection, he's running off a career high mark today of 102 but he couldn't be in better form, he's won three of his last four races, all at Fontwell, he'll go on the likely heavy ground and his trainer has an excellent record in Handicap chases at the track.
Bets
1410 Worcester - Golden Chieftain - win single @ 7/2 (1st @ 3/1)
1410 Worcester - Double Ross - each-way @ 8/1 (Fell)
1525 Fontwell - Venetian Lad - win single @ 10/3 (1st @ 3/1)
Over to Fontwell and the 2m6f Handicap Chase at 1525 where Venetian Lad is the selection, he's running off a career high mark today of 102 but he couldn't be in better form, he's won three of his last four races, all at Fontwell, he'll go on the likely heavy ground and his trainer has an excellent record in Handicap chases at the track.
Bets
1410 Worcester - Golden Chieftain - win single @ 7/2 (1st @ 3/1)
1410 Worcester - Double Ross - each-way @ 8/1 (Fell)
1525 Fontwell - Venetian Lad - win single @ 10/3 (1st @ 3/1)
Tuesday 23 October 2012
Tuesday 23rd October 2012
We got a welcome winner on Friday with Sire Collonges and hopefully that will carry on today at Exeter where there is some decent enough racing on show.
The novice hurdle at 1440 is an interesting shape from an each way perspective, the favourite and second favourite look solid enough so that leaves value to be found elsewhere, namely with Dom Lukka, Charlie Longsdon's Dom Alco gelding won a couple of minor 4yo French chases in the spring and was then given a break to grow and strengthen. He looks a nice prospect for novice hurdles and at 7/1 with 3 places is an each-way steal.
Onto the beginners chase next at 1510 and there's quite a few who are possibly in with chances over this 2m1f trip. Rebel Rebellion is the type to make a decent chaser and the trainer has an excellent record with his novices here. Pantxoa from the Alan King yard is the one who takes the eye here though, he ran some good races in defeat last year and this powerful sort has conditions to suit, his trainer and jockeys only runner of the day he should be there or thereabouts and at 10/1 that's a chance worth taking.
Bets
1440 Exeter - Dom Lukka e/w @ 7/1 (6th @ 8/1)
1510 Exeter - Pantxoa e/w @ 10/1 (4th @ 8/1)
The novice hurdle at 1440 is an interesting shape from an each way perspective, the favourite and second favourite look solid enough so that leaves value to be found elsewhere, namely with Dom Lukka, Charlie Longsdon's Dom Alco gelding won a couple of minor 4yo French chases in the spring and was then given a break to grow and strengthen. He looks a nice prospect for novice hurdles and at 7/1 with 3 places is an each-way steal.
Onto the beginners chase next at 1510 and there's quite a few who are possibly in with chances over this 2m1f trip. Rebel Rebellion is the type to make a decent chaser and the trainer has an excellent record with his novices here. Pantxoa from the Alan King yard is the one who takes the eye here though, he ran some good races in defeat last year and this powerful sort has conditions to suit, his trainer and jockeys only runner of the day he should be there or thereabouts and at 10/1 that's a chance worth taking.
Bets
1440 Exeter - Dom Lukka e/w @ 7/1 (6th @ 8/1)
1510 Exeter - Pantxoa e/w @ 10/1 (4th @ 8/1)
Friday 19 October 2012
Cheltenham Friday 19th October 2012
Starting things off is the 2m5f novice hurdle and The New One looks a solid favourite here, very well regarded by Nigel Twiston-Davies he won as he liked at Newton Abbot on his hurdling debut 18 days ago but didn't convince me with his jumping, there's no doubt he's got a engine but until I see him jump a bit better I'll let him run. Village Vic has been backed this morning, goes well fresh and I can see him being involved in the finish along with Special Account who has looked a natural over hurdles rattling off a hat-trick over the summer in lower class races, but the way he has gone about his business suggests there is plenty more to come.
Next up is the 2m4f novice chase and Go All The Way rates a strong fancy for this Jim Dreaper's gelding finished 4th in the Champion Bumper here in March 2011, he has really impressed with his jumping and has improved tremendously in his two unbeaten starts over fences, there is plenty more to come. Domtaline is a danger as he goes well fresh, he's unbeaten over fences all be it at a lower level but this is a big step up in class. What A Warrior and King Of The Night are others to take a close look at.
Over to the 3m1/2f novice chase on the card and I really like the look of Sire Collonges who is built to be a chaser and I expect enormous improvement over fences this term from this through stayer who was an impressive winner on his chase debut at Fontwell in May.
Bets
1445 - Go All The Way - win single @ 2/1 (Fell @ 15/8)
1555 - Sire Collonges - win single @ 4/1 (1st @ 4/1)
Friday 12 October 2012
Friday October 11th
Action today from Carlisle with the most valuable NH race of the day a Class 3 2m Handicap Chase, its going to be tough going with the stiff finish and soft conditions but lets take a look at the runners.
Tito Bustillo - Chase Record 0-0-2(w-p-r). Ex Paul Nicholls hurdler who hasn't convinced with his jumping in two starts over fences. Handicap chase debut and could be on a reasonable mark but all his winning & placed form is in fields of 10 or more runners.
Bocciani - Chase Record 2-3-11. Didn't stay 2m7f on Sunday at Kelso and 2m on soft ground even round Carlisle may not be quite the test he needs but this course winner will be staying on late on.
Fred Bojangles - Chase Record 7-10-42. Travelled well for a long way latest but looks to need a bit more help from the handicapper before he's troubling the judge again. All best form on better ground and trainer not had a winner for over a year.
Moulin De La Croix - Chase Record 3-7-20. 7lb penalty for easy win latest & 3lb above highest winning mark but in form this year especially on soft/heavy, conditions suit, stable flying and major player here.
Carrietau - Chase Record 5-11-47. Moody front runner who sometimes sulks when headed, on the plus side he's a C/D winner who has dropped to 2lb above his last winning mark but trainer not had a winner since July.
Prosecco - Chase Record 1-3-10. Dropping to a winnable mark but never won going right handed or on an undulating track. Can go well fresh but opposable.
Storm Surge - Chase Record 4-6-25. No worthwhile form since December 2011, record suggests he'll need the run and passed over on reappearance.
Verdict
The only two I can see with any sort of chance are Moulin De La Croix and Bocciani. Preference by a long way is for Moulin De La Croix as he has his conditions, is in form, his stable are going well and he can defy a penalty.
Bet
Moulin De La Croix @ 13/8 (4th @ 9/4)
She ran well but got caught out by the rise in class, the blog seems to be on a bit of a losing run at the moment but my luck will turn, onwards and upwards to Chepstow tomorrow.
Tito Bustillo - Chase Record 0-0-2(w-p-r). Ex Paul Nicholls hurdler who hasn't convinced with his jumping in two starts over fences. Handicap chase debut and could be on a reasonable mark but all his winning & placed form is in fields of 10 or more runners.
Bocciani - Chase Record 2-3-11. Didn't stay 2m7f on Sunday at Kelso and 2m on soft ground even round Carlisle may not be quite the test he needs but this course winner will be staying on late on.
Fred Bojangles - Chase Record 7-10-42. Travelled well for a long way latest but looks to need a bit more help from the handicapper before he's troubling the judge again. All best form on better ground and trainer not had a winner for over a year.
Moulin De La Croix - Chase Record 3-7-20. 7lb penalty for easy win latest & 3lb above highest winning mark but in form this year especially on soft/heavy, conditions suit, stable flying and major player here.
Carrietau - Chase Record 5-11-47. Moody front runner who sometimes sulks when headed, on the plus side he's a C/D winner who has dropped to 2lb above his last winning mark but trainer not had a winner since July.
Prosecco - Chase Record 1-3-10. Dropping to a winnable mark but never won going right handed or on an undulating track. Can go well fresh but opposable.
Storm Surge - Chase Record 4-6-25. No worthwhile form since December 2011, record suggests he'll need the run and passed over on reappearance.
Verdict
The only two I can see with any sort of chance are Moulin De La Croix and Bocciani. Preference by a long way is for Moulin De La Croix as he has his conditions, is in form, his stable are going well and he can defy a penalty.
Bet
Moulin De La Croix @ 13/8 (4th @ 9/4)
She ran well but got caught out by the rise in class, the blog seems to be on a bit of a losing run at the moment but my luck will turn, onwards and upwards to Chepstow tomorrow.
Thursday 11 October 2012
Thursday 11th October 2012
Henry Hook was travelling well yesterday but just over-jumped at the 12th and sprawled on landing giving his jockey no chance, its hard to say if he was going to be involved in the finish but I think he would have.
Today's racing is very unappealing from a punting viewpoint, the only horse to catch my eye is Emma Lavelle's Red Mile in the 1550 from Exeter. The trainer has a very good strike rate with horses coming back from a break of 150 days or more. He's worth watching in the market.
Tomorrows racing is from Carlisle after Newton Abbot was abandoned and there is a decent Handicap Chase worth £8,700 to get stuck into. I'll be back later with some analysis.
Today's racing is very unappealing from a punting viewpoint, the only horse to catch my eye is Emma Lavelle's Red Mile in the 1550 from Exeter. The trainer has a very good strike rate with horses coming back from a break of 150 days or more. He's worth watching in the market.
Tomorrows racing is from Carlisle after Newton Abbot was abandoned and there is a decent Handicap Chase worth £8,700 to get stuck into. I'll be back later with some analysis.
Wednesday 10 October 2012
Wednesday 10th October 2012
Two meetings tomorrow from Ludlow & Towcester with the richest race of the day a class 4 handicap chase from Ludlow worth £9,384 to the winner, so lets go through the card.
Ludlow 1510 3m 0-120 Handicap Chase Class 4
Vincitore - Chase record 2-1-9(w-p-r). Tailed off when last seen though this tough sort has dropped to a nice looking mark if ready on reappearance.
Intac - Chase record 6-4-30. Doesn't always put his best foot forward and ran no sort of race last time after winning the time before. Passed over.
Armenian Boy - Chase record 1-4-8. Not the most resolute in a finish but ran well latest, conditions suit but needs to defy career high mark.
Bold Perk - Chase record 4-1-20. 6lb above last winning mark and well beaten latest two starts. Passed over.
Tasheba - Chase record 2-0-6. He won two weak novice chases over the summer but was tailed off at Perth latest. Needs to drop a bit more in the handicap.
Henry Hook - Chase record 0-1-3. Didn't look happy in his three novice chases last year and on a bit of a recovery mission, he won a decent handicap hurdle when last seen, can go well fresh and trainers runner's always warrant inspection at this time of year.
Pyracantha - Chase record 2-4-15. Definite stamina doubts as 0-0-6 over distances further than 2m5f. His jumping is questionable and his trainer out of form.
I'm The Decider - Chase record 4-4-21. Up 6lb for latest win and now 3lb higher than highest winning chase mark, race conditions suit and will be thereabouts.
Battlecry - Chase Record 2-12-37. Seems better over further these days but stable going well as always in October, place claims at best.
No Panic - Chase Record 6-8-39. Won latest and up 5lb but has never been one to trust that he can follow up plus he's never won in a field of more than 10 runners from 16 attempts. Passed over.
Hazeymm - Chase record 0-3-4. Could be well in on first run for new yard but trip a worry and best watched.
Michigan Assassin - Chase Record 2-2-14. Up 5lb for reappearance win to highest winning mark of 115. More needed but not sure where he's going to find it. Passed over.
Oscar Glory - Chase Record 2-4-17. Well beaten more often than not lately and readily passed over.
Persian Run - Chase Record 1-2-17. Back to form latest and up 5lb for good 2nd at Fontwell, overall profile suggests he's far from certain to repeat though.
VERDICT
I'm The Decider seems the stand out here but Henry Hook warrants the utmost respect given his trainers October record. Battle Cry looks the most solid option for each-way backers.
Bets
Henry Hook - win single @ 13/2. (U/R @ 9/2)
Ludlow 1510 3m 0-120 Handicap Chase Class 4
Vincitore - Chase record 2-1-9(w-p-r). Tailed off when last seen though this tough sort has dropped to a nice looking mark if ready on reappearance.
Intac - Chase record 6-4-30. Doesn't always put his best foot forward and ran no sort of race last time after winning the time before. Passed over.
Armenian Boy - Chase record 1-4-8. Not the most resolute in a finish but ran well latest, conditions suit but needs to defy career high mark.
Bold Perk - Chase record 4-1-20. 6lb above last winning mark and well beaten latest two starts. Passed over.
Tasheba - Chase record 2-0-6. He won two weak novice chases over the summer but was tailed off at Perth latest. Needs to drop a bit more in the handicap.
Henry Hook - Chase record 0-1-3. Didn't look happy in his three novice chases last year and on a bit of a recovery mission, he won a decent handicap hurdle when last seen, can go well fresh and trainers runner's always warrant inspection at this time of year.
Pyracantha - Chase record 2-4-15. Definite stamina doubts as 0-0-6 over distances further than 2m5f. His jumping is questionable and his trainer out of form.
I'm The Decider - Chase record 4-4-21. Up 6lb for latest win and now 3lb higher than highest winning chase mark, race conditions suit and will be thereabouts.
Battlecry - Chase Record 2-12-37. Seems better over further these days but stable going well as always in October, place claims at best.
No Panic - Chase Record 6-8-39. Won latest and up 5lb but has never been one to trust that he can follow up plus he's never won in a field of more than 10 runners from 16 attempts. Passed over.
Hazeymm - Chase record 0-3-4. Could be well in on first run for new yard but trip a worry and best watched.
Michigan Assassin - Chase Record 2-2-14. Up 5lb for reappearance win to highest winning mark of 115. More needed but not sure where he's going to find it. Passed over.
Oscar Glory - Chase Record 2-4-17. Well beaten more often than not lately and readily passed over.
Persian Run - Chase Record 1-2-17. Back to form latest and up 5lb for good 2nd at Fontwell, overall profile suggests he's far from certain to repeat though.
VERDICT
I'm The Decider seems the stand out here but Henry Hook warrants the utmost respect given his trainers October record. Battle Cry looks the most solid option for each-way backers.
Bets
Henry Hook - win single @ 13/2. (U/R @ 9/2)
Monday 8 October 2012
Monday 8th October
Well yesterdays selection's didn't perform at all, Houston Dynimo's penalty stopped him with Lively Baron winning the race under all of Jason Maguires urgings, I could'nt bring myself to back Lively Baron though as a quirky horse and a short price are not for me. Over at Kelso Bescot Springs definitely looked in need of further after being outpaced from 3 out and will possibly still be of interest over further on softer ground.
No National Hunt racing now until Wednesday so I'll be back then to run the rule over the cards.
No National Hunt racing now until Wednesday so I'll be back then to run the rule over the cards.
Sunday 7 October 2012
Sunday 7th October
Three meetings for us to look over today and the most valuable race is a 2m Class 3 Novice Chase at Huntingdon, on first glance it looks a little tricky but further analysis may pay off so here we go.
Geneva Geyser - chase record of 1-2-3(w-p-r), he opened his account on his last run and there maybe more to come as long as the ground doesn't soften, the only negative is his record running right handed 0-0-4.
Houston Dynimo - made all to open his chase account at the first time of asking and open to improvement here. Conditions suit(good or faster) and this willing sort should be thereabouts.
Tindaro - chase record 1-1-4, jumped right and made mistakes behind Houston Dynimo latest, need to see a bit more from him under his penalty.
Akula - 130 rated hurdler making his chase debut. Fit from the flat and conditions suit here so it will be interesting to see if there's any market support. (As I write this he can be backed at 12's on betfair.)
Christopher Wren - Didn't seem to like fences on his chase debut at Leicester last time and trainer badly out of form, that's enough to give this one the swerve.
Eighteen Carrot - chase record 0-0-4, took a crashing fall when last seen 283 days ago and sold out of Donald McCain's yard in between. Best watched.
Ontheslate - Chase debut. Irish point winner who's shown nothing in three runs over hurdles. Best watched.
Tornade D'Estruval - Chase record 1-2-4. Impressive in opening chase account on first start for new yard but didn't look too resolute in her races when with Nicky Henderson last season.
Alfraamsey - Chase record 0-2-2. Uninspiring start to chase career, place claims with 4yo weight allowance.
Baharat - This modest performer is best watched on his chase debut.
Verdict
Im taken with Houston Dynimo and Geneva Geyser as long as it doesn't rain from a win perspective and will wait and see what there respective price's are in the morning. The chase debutant Akula is interesting as well, especially if backed. As of 0940 Sunday morning Geneva Geyser is now a non runner, Houston Dynimo is 10/3 favourite and looks to have a favourites chance. Akula has opened at best price 7/1.
Bets 1615 Huntingdon
Houston Dynimo - win single @ 10/3 (3rd @ 7/2)
Off over the Scottish border to Kelso for the days next most valuable race, and its a 2m7f Class 3 Handicap Chase.
Lord Redsgirth - Chase record 2-2-9. Solid 3rd at Uttoxeter 14 days ago off this mark suggests place claims but record says race may come to soon. 0-0-5 within 15 days of latest run.
Bescot Springs - Chase record 2-2-8. Shaped well after a break last time, could do with a little further to run but conditions suit otherwise. Player.
O Crotaigh -Chase record 4-4-20. All wins at Market Rasen & never won over this distance 0-0-11 above 2m6f, also all his form is going right handed. Passed over here.
Lively Baron - Chase record 2-1-8. Has gone well fresh in the past but is very lazy and needs a lot of assistance from the saddle. Maguire's record on him is 4-2-7 which is encouraging. The drying ground suits. Chance.
Bocciani - Chase record 2-3-10. Placed in higher grade last two runs, fit from the flat and chance here if staying the trip.
You Know Yourself - Chase record 5-4-19. Has been placed off a higher mark and conditions suit but record suggests he will come on for his reappearance.
Rossini's Dancer - Chase record 4-6-18. Up 10lb for easy win for new stable latest but needs to improve again as on career high mark. Possible.
Flying Doctor - Chase record 1-2-8. Record suggests he'll struggle here as he wants better ground and a drop in class. Passed over.
Solway Bay - Chase record 2-0-11. Dropping down the weights but has shown nothing in last 4 runs. Passed over.
More Equity - Chase record 1-9-22. Placed off 112 in the past and on 108 here, seems to want better ground and no wins in this class from 15 attempts. Passed over
Verdict
My shortlist consists of Bescot Springs, Lively Baron & Bocciani. Lively Baron is reluctantly passed over on the basis of the ground possibly being a bit to soft for him. Bocciani has a major chance if staying the trip, but my bet is Bescott Springs who should come on his latest run and will be staying on well at the death.
Bets
Bescot Springs - win single @ 7/1 (5th @ 8/1)
Geneva Geyser - chase record of 1-2-3(w-p-r), he opened his account on his last run and there maybe more to come as long as the ground doesn't soften, the only negative is his record running right handed 0-0-4.
Houston Dynimo - made all to open his chase account at the first time of asking and open to improvement here. Conditions suit(good or faster) and this willing sort should be thereabouts.
Tindaro - chase record 1-1-4, jumped right and made mistakes behind Houston Dynimo latest, need to see a bit more from him under his penalty.
Akula - 130 rated hurdler making his chase debut. Fit from the flat and conditions suit here so it will be interesting to see if there's any market support. (As I write this he can be backed at 12's on betfair.)
Christopher Wren - Didn't seem to like fences on his chase debut at Leicester last time and trainer badly out of form, that's enough to give this one the swerve.
Eighteen Carrot - chase record 0-0-4, took a crashing fall when last seen 283 days ago and sold out of Donald McCain's yard in between. Best watched.
Ontheslate - Chase debut. Irish point winner who's shown nothing in three runs over hurdles. Best watched.
Tornade D'Estruval - Chase record 1-2-4. Impressive in opening chase account on first start for new yard but didn't look too resolute in her races when with Nicky Henderson last season.
Alfraamsey - Chase record 0-2-2. Uninspiring start to chase career, place claims with 4yo weight allowance.
Baharat - This modest performer is best watched on his chase debut.
Verdict
Im taken with Houston Dynimo and Geneva Geyser as long as it doesn't rain from a win perspective and will wait and see what there respective price's are in the morning. The chase debutant Akula is interesting as well, especially if backed. As of 0940 Sunday morning Geneva Geyser is now a non runner, Houston Dynimo is 10/3 favourite and looks to have a favourites chance. Akula has opened at best price 7/1.
Bets 1615 Huntingdon
Houston Dynimo - win single @ 10/3 (3rd @ 7/2)
Off over the Scottish border to Kelso for the days next most valuable race, and its a 2m7f Class 3 Handicap Chase.
Lord Redsgirth - Chase record 2-2-9. Solid 3rd at Uttoxeter 14 days ago off this mark suggests place claims but record says race may come to soon. 0-0-5 within 15 days of latest run.
Bescot Springs - Chase record 2-2-8. Shaped well after a break last time, could do with a little further to run but conditions suit otherwise. Player.
O Crotaigh -Chase record 4-4-20. All wins at Market Rasen & never won over this distance 0-0-11 above 2m6f, also all his form is going right handed. Passed over here.
Lively Baron - Chase record 2-1-8. Has gone well fresh in the past but is very lazy and needs a lot of assistance from the saddle. Maguire's record on him is 4-2-7 which is encouraging. The drying ground suits. Chance.
Bocciani - Chase record 2-3-10. Placed in higher grade last two runs, fit from the flat and chance here if staying the trip.
You Know Yourself - Chase record 5-4-19. Has been placed off a higher mark and conditions suit but record suggests he will come on for his reappearance.
Rossini's Dancer - Chase record 4-6-18. Up 10lb for easy win for new stable latest but needs to improve again as on career high mark. Possible.
Flying Doctor - Chase record 1-2-8. Record suggests he'll struggle here as he wants better ground and a drop in class. Passed over.
Solway Bay - Chase record 2-0-11. Dropping down the weights but has shown nothing in last 4 runs. Passed over.
More Equity - Chase record 1-9-22. Placed off 112 in the past and on 108 here, seems to want better ground and no wins in this class from 15 attempts. Passed over
Verdict
My shortlist consists of Bescot Springs, Lively Baron & Bocciani. Lively Baron is reluctantly passed over on the basis of the ground possibly being a bit to soft for him. Bocciani has a major chance if staying the trip, but my bet is Bescott Springs who should come on his latest run and will be staying on well at the death.
Bets
Bescot Springs - win single @ 7/1 (5th @ 8/1)
Saturday 6 October 2012
Saturday 6th October
I'm thrilled to say the blog started with a winner yesterday with Marodima jumping well and making all in the handicap chase at Fontwell. Today's richest race is again at Fontwell, a handicap hurdle but it looks far to trappy to get involved with and I'll happily leave it alone. There's three meetings on Sunday and i'll be back to look over those cards later.
Friday 5 October 2012
Dipping My Toe In The Water
Im going to be looking at the two most valuable NH races of the day which are a 2m2f class 2 handicap chase at Fontwell and a 2m4f class 3 handicap hurdle from Hexham.
Looking at the Chase from Fontwell first we can start by discounting Oldrick and Tatispout until they show a little more interest in the game. King Edmund will do well to repeat his 2nd in this last year as he'd had a previous run and was 6lbs lower. Pure Faith has shown nothing since his good 2nd to Alberta's Run at Aintree last October, but fresh (3 runs 2 wins with a break of 120 days or more) may be the time to catch him and at 10/1 tonight with 8 runners he looks a possible each way bet. Marodima running style suits Fontwell and it shows with a course record of 211, he was in cracking form when last out in May and is not to badly treated even after a 10 lb rise for his last win. Current Event represents champion trainer Paul Nicholls and is 2 from 2 (in weak novice chases) over C/D, but he was well held on his handicap debut and has only been dropped 1lb. Mister Matt is in top form but has never won beyond 2 miles in 13 attempts and also seems best on a flat track. Gus Macrae has not been seen since winning a weak Bangor novice chase 510 days ago and had shown little aptitude for chasing up until then, hard to get excited about even with McCoy on board.
Verdict
Marodima looks the call here and at 4/1 tonight I have helped myself. Current Event can't be discounted due to connections and for each-way players Pure Faith at 10/1 looks a good value bet.
Bet's
Marodima - Win Single @ 4/1 1st @ 7/2sp
I'll be back tomorrow morning to look at the Hexham race.
Right then the 1505 from Hexham, Summer Soul can be dismissed as he's a quirky one and he showed nothing on his return. Cool Baranca won 4 handicap hurdles this summer against lesser opposition but can be opposed here up in grade against less exposed rivals. Crystal Rock is the next for the chop, the ground won't suit and he looks too need a few more pounds to come off his back before he gets his head in front. Bury Parade easily won two novice hurdles in the mud here last season and ran well in a Grade 2 at Kelso on his final start, top weight here he should go well and is interesting at 10/1. Howizee doesn't look a natural jumper, looks better over further and may need better ground, so he's passed over as well.
Kellys Brow won on his handicap debut in August and up 7lbs which will not stop him as he looks far from exposed, soft ground will suit and a major player here at the current 4/1. Global Fella, a huge horse he looks to be a chaser in the making, he showed signs of temperament last season and was sold out of Nicky Henderson's yard over the summer he looks up against it here on unsuitable soft ground and a stiff enough mark. River Dragon won on the flat in the mud on Wednesday and looks to have a major chance here two days later, the only thing putting me off is his record on undulating tracks 0-3-9 (W-P-R).
Verdict
Kellys Brow looks the most unexposed horse in the race and is very tempting at 4/1, but the main bet in the race is Bury Parade each way at 10/1 as I just can't see him out of the first three.
Bet's
Kellys Brow - Win Single @ 4/1 - unplaced (p/u)
Bury Parade - Each-Way @ 10/1 - unplaced (4th)
Looking at the Chase from Fontwell first we can start by discounting Oldrick and Tatispout until they show a little more interest in the game. King Edmund will do well to repeat his 2nd in this last year as he'd had a previous run and was 6lbs lower. Pure Faith has shown nothing since his good 2nd to Alberta's Run at Aintree last October, but fresh (3 runs 2 wins with a break of 120 days or more) may be the time to catch him and at 10/1 tonight with 8 runners he looks a possible each way bet. Marodima running style suits Fontwell and it shows with a course record of 211, he was in cracking form when last out in May and is not to badly treated even after a 10 lb rise for his last win. Current Event represents champion trainer Paul Nicholls and is 2 from 2 (in weak novice chases) over C/D, but he was well held on his handicap debut and has only been dropped 1lb. Mister Matt is in top form but has never won beyond 2 miles in 13 attempts and also seems best on a flat track. Gus Macrae has not been seen since winning a weak Bangor novice chase 510 days ago and had shown little aptitude for chasing up until then, hard to get excited about even with McCoy on board.
Verdict
Marodima looks the call here and at 4/1 tonight I have helped myself. Current Event can't be discounted due to connections and for each-way players Pure Faith at 10/1 looks a good value bet.
Bet's
Marodima - Win Single @ 4/1 1st @ 7/2sp
I'll be back tomorrow morning to look at the Hexham race.
Right then the 1505 from Hexham, Summer Soul can be dismissed as he's a quirky one and he showed nothing on his return. Cool Baranca won 4 handicap hurdles this summer against lesser opposition but can be opposed here up in grade against less exposed rivals. Crystal Rock is the next for the chop, the ground won't suit and he looks too need a few more pounds to come off his back before he gets his head in front. Bury Parade easily won two novice hurdles in the mud here last season and ran well in a Grade 2 at Kelso on his final start, top weight here he should go well and is interesting at 10/1. Howizee doesn't look a natural jumper, looks better over further and may need better ground, so he's passed over as well.
Kellys Brow won on his handicap debut in August and up 7lbs which will not stop him as he looks far from exposed, soft ground will suit and a major player here at the current 4/1. Global Fella, a huge horse he looks to be a chaser in the making, he showed signs of temperament last season and was sold out of Nicky Henderson's yard over the summer he looks up against it here on unsuitable soft ground and a stiff enough mark. River Dragon won on the flat in the mud on Wednesday and looks to have a major chance here two days later, the only thing putting me off is his record on undulating tracks 0-3-9 (W-P-R).
Verdict
Kellys Brow looks the most unexposed horse in the race and is very tempting at 4/1, but the main bet in the race is Bury Parade each way at 10/1 as I just can't see him out of the first three.
Bet's
Kellys Brow - Win Single @ 4/1 - unplaced (p/u)
Bury Parade - Each-Way @ 10/1 - unplaced (4th)
Monday 1 October 2012
Getting Back On Track
Hopefully, I can keep up the blog this winter and log my betting adventures, discipline is key to successful betting and Im hoping it starts here. In my opinion the winter game is far superior to the flat and offers better betting opportunities. This season the blogs profit & loss will be worked out to a £10 level stakes, so here's to a profitable season, let the games begin.
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