Saturday 24 November 2012

1520 Ascot 2m1f Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2)



Small field go to post but some familiar names line up for this 30 grand handicap.  Trends say were looking for a front running/prominent 6 to 9yo who won or placed last time out. So let’s see what we find.
Tanks For That – Improved throughout last season going from 140 to 155 in the ratings. Goes well fresh but may not have much improvement left and soft ground not in his favour. Trainer has a good strike rate at track and place claims at best.
Champion Court – Handicap debut and looked a decent chaser last season culminating in good seconds at Cheltenham behind Sir De Champs and Aintree behind Silviniaco Conti. Goes well fresh but trip a concern as best form over further.
Mad Max – Dropped 3lbs for reappearance Aintree 4th and goes well on soft ground but does not fit the profile of a race winner and is passed over.
Pepite Rose – 10lb higher than last handicap win, staying on 3rd over C/D on reappearance but possibly better going left handed over further.
Toubab – Brought down when going really well in the Grand Annual , can go well fresh and is reasonably weighted  but always makes a mistake in his races and I believe he is essentially a good ground performer.
Marodima – Up 8lbs for easy win in Fontwell Handicap and can go well from the front again here, he’s been placed off a higher mark, goes well in a small field and acts on the ground. This is the toughest assignment he’s faced for a while but he could spring a surprise.
Williams Wishes – Handicap debut for this unbeaten chaser who has been very impressive in his three novice wins the last of which was in Jan 11, off track for 664 days and a leap of faith required to back him after absence with only run at this level resulting in a well beaten 7th.

Verdict
Concern over the market leaders ability to act on the ground draws me towards Marodima who can slip the field and make a bold bid from the front. Champion Court can chase him home.

1point win Marodima @ 12/1 with bet365

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