Well the best handicap chase of the season is almost upon us
and after applying some quick trends I’m left with a shortlist of ten from the
current twenty-two entries.
Bobs Worth – He
has a cracking attitude, looks a thorough stayer and this strong travelling
type could prove up to this mark (160) on route to a crack at the Gold Cup and
is a worthy favourite but on the flipside he has never raced on ground as
potentially soft as he’ll encounter on Saturday and the RSA form is showing
only 1 winner from 18 runners.
First Lieutenant
– Has ran his best races on better ground including a good 2nd to Bobs Worth in the RSA, his weight
difference here shouldn’t entitle him to reverse that form but he is a decent
animal in his own right and should have no trouble with the trip. His last 5
runs on a left hand flat track have been 11122.
Hold On Julio – Sketchy
jumper who after only 7 runs is undoubtedly well treated off 148, staying on 3rd
on reappearance at Cheltenham in October with 2 winners coming out of the race
already bodes well but his record left handed is 1 win from 5 (PP103) and he
was pulled up on his only run on soft ground.
Tatenen – Last
seen unseating his rider at the canal turn in the National, Grade 1 placed as a
novice his next worthwhile run was 2 years later at Ascot when popping up in a
44 grand handicap off 137 he then repeated the feat a year later off 143, going
off 147 here and considering his general profile I don’t think he’ll appreciate
the test he’s facing here.
The Package –
Stayed on well to win the Badgers Ales Handicap at Wincanton last time off 139
up 8lbs so off 147 here but has been well beaten off that mark in decent
handicaps twice, trip, track and ground should all suit but I don’t think he
has the class to be involved.
Saint Are –
Gamely won a valuable handicap at Aintree in the spring off 137 and trainer
stated in an interview that he has strengthened over the summer and has
progressed so well that the Hennessy has become a possible target so a mark of
145 should prove well within his grasp. His overall record suggest he is a
spring horse wanting decent ground but he has solid each-way claims at best.
Diamond Harry – Not
been at his best since winning the 2010 Hennessy and pulled up last three runs,
need to see a bit more before you could seriously consider backing him.
Harry The Viking – Would not want the
ground to testing and has been pulled up on his latest 2 starts but has a nice
light weight and this thorough stayer could run well based on his 2nd
in the NH Chase at the festival in the spring. Trainer states he’s not a
definite runner due to conditions.
Soll – Brought
down when travelling well in the NH Chase at the festival, this unexposed sort
really is the fly in the ointment as he could be thrown in here off 139. He’s
only had 4 races, easily winning his Novice Hurdle on his racecourse debut,
then just failing by a neck 11 months later on his Chase debut, he then won his
beginners chase a month later @ 2/5 before being brought down at Cheltenham,
conditions will suit here. Interesting.
Alfie Spinner – Decent
reappearance at Ascot and will love conditions if it remains heavy but I
believe the Welsh National is the big target for this horse and I’d be
surprised if he is tuned up enough to win both.
Verdict
This race tends to be won by a progressive second season
chaser and with this year’s crop looking a lot better than last year’s second
season chaser’s I’m expecting normal progress to be resumed. Bobs
Worth has a touch of the Trabolgan’s about him and will have to go very
close off this mark if he’s to be a force in the Gold Cup come March, in fact
he will have to be as good as Denman was when he took this race for the first
time in 2007. Others worth noting are
Hold On Julio who is definitely well in off his mark and Alan King has
stated in today’s (Tuesdays) Racing Post he will act on the soft so he has to
come into the reckoning. Saint Are is another second season
chaser who if we overlook his preference for the spring has place claims as
this test should suit him well. Finally Soll,
the dark horse, how good is he, why did Willie Mullins sell him on, is he
thrown in off 139? Well I don’t know the answer to any of those questions but i
do know at 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills he’s worth a cheeky £5 each-way.
Bets
Soll 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes & Hills)
Hold On Julio 0.5pt
win @ 7/1 (Tote, Ladbrokes)
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