The Becher Chase is a 3m2f Listed Handicap over the famous
National fences at Aintree, it generally seems to be quite an open contest with
recent winners up to 33/1. Applying some simple trends we’ll try and narrow the
field and get a handle on this 16 runner race. Firstly it seems horses aged 11+
have a very poor record with only a single win from 29 attempts, so out go Ballabriggs, Swing Bill, Mumbles Head, In
Complience and Hello Bud.
Next up I looked at
breeding and found out that 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred and even
more so British and French breeds had only supplied 2 winners from 60 runners,
with such strong breeding stats I dived into the dosage and found that 16 of
the last 17 winners had more than 10 dosage points in their profile when totalled,
14/17 had a DI of 1.13 or below and 15/17 had a CD of 0.40 or below which all
points to a stamina based pedigree, on dosage figures then out go Big Fella Thanks, Mumbles Head, Gullible
Gordon and Ballyvesey. On the other
breeding angle we must throw out Big
Fella Thanks, Midnight Haze, Poker De Sivola, Problema Tic and Swing Bill.
Moving onto the way previous race’s have panned out we find
out that 13 out of the past 17 winners have been front runners or raced prominently
so we now lose Ballabriggs, Big Fella
Thanks, Problema Tic, Mumbles Head, Poker De Sivola, In Complience, Minella
Theatre and Ballyvessy.
So now on my reckoning we’re left with four solid contenders
based on trends which are as follows
Join Together – Should
leave reappearance run behind him and strip a lot fitter here as record shows
he needs a run to put him straight, he has some decent novice form in the book,
is open to improvement and jumps well in the main but my concern is the field
size as his best runs have come in races with no more than six runners, his
record in big fields is 7P.
West End Rocker – Last
years winner and back again off 5lb higher in almost identical conditions to
defend his crown, excellent reappearance run at Wincanton when 3rd
behind The Package should have put him straight for this and big player if he completes
but with Choc Thornton in the plate (0/13 on the horse) and at a best priced
11/2 I’d rather look elsewhere.
Any Currency – Won
well at Wincanton on reappearance and followed that up with a solid 4th
in a decent Cheltenham handicap, dropped 1lb he looks to have a decent chance
here if he’s on a going day as he usually needs lots of assistance from the
saddle. He stays all day and will appreciate the test the ground is going to
give.
Fabalu – Usually comes
on for his reappearance so don’t read too much into his well beaten 5th
here in October. Trainer has tried to prepare him for the last two runnings of
this race but unfortunately injury has prevented him from taking his chance. Conditions
suit today and off 131 I can see him placing at least. He has some decent
placed efforts to his name off 2lb lower and has ability so let’s hope he puts
that all together today and let’s take some of the 20/1 with Ladbrokes &
Hills each way.
Bet
Fabalu 1pt each-way @
20/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills
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