Its an interesting race for sure, here's some of the stronger stats.
ONLY 2 FOUR YEAR OLDS have won since 1988 (DETROIT CITY (2006) & BRAMPOUR (2011)). So it looks like you have to be an exceptional youngster to take this.
ALL of the last 20 winners had won over 2 miles in the past.
18 of the last 20 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED 129 +
14 of the last 17 winners had won one or more of their last THREE STARTS.
So applying those stats your left with a shortlist of Moon Dice, Rattan, Cash And Go, Domination, Constant Contact, Dark Lover & Hunters Belt.
Lets see who off this shortlist goes on the ground
Rattan
Cash And Go
Domination
Dark Lover
Hunters Belt
Now lets look at the shortlist and see who like's running round an undulating track.
Cash And Go
Domination
Dark Lover
Now off this shortlist lets see who like running in big fields.
Cash And Go
Domination
Dark Lover
So they all pass the test on this score.
Lets now look at the three contenders we have left
Cash And Go - looks favourably treated off 141 and has reportedly pleased Nicky Henderson since joining him during the summer. Unbeaten on his seasonal reappearances, he will be ridden by Barry Geraghty. Everything looks in place for a big run.
Domination - won the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket in September by four and a half lengths (runner-up won five times this season) off a mark of 77. He is a dual winner over hurdles and he finished a nose second behind prolific winner Baily Green at Killarney in September. He is ten pounds higher now but he is relatively unexposed.
Dark Lover - is unbeaten in three races over hurdles and is rated 131. Absent due to injury from February 2011 until October this year, he made a successful return by beating the improving Changing The Guard by four lengths at Cheltenham. Eleven pounds higher now, he is unexposed and will go well off a light weight.
SELECTIONS
Cash And Go - win single @ 6/1
Dark Lover - e/w @ 14/1
Sunday, 18 November 2012
Friday, 9 November 2012
Hexham
With Bostons Angel falling when challenging and Get Off The Stage finishing 3rd yesterday's Irish tips were a case of close but no cigar. Just the one selection for today and its up north to Hexham for the 2m handicap Hurdle at 1400. Livvy Inn is the one to be with here, he ran well at Carlisle on Sunday is kicking the stable door off at home according to Lucinda Russell and has dropped to a handy mark of 95, front runners go well over this C/D so he needs to be up with the pace but I can't see any reason why he wont win this very modest race.
Bets
1400 Hexham - Livvy Inn win single @ 11/4 (1st @ 85/40)
Bets
1400 Hexham - Livvy Inn win single @ 11/4 (1st @ 85/40)
Thursday, 8 November 2012
Thurles
Bostons Angel looks a decent bet at 11/2 in the Listed Chase over at Thurles today. Jessica Harrington's string are in decent form and this former Grade One winner who lost his way last season has his easiest opportunity to score over fences for quite a while. A couple of runs over hurdles should have restored some confidence and all things point to a big run here. Roi Du Me looks a danger and will be hard to pass but I believe Bostons Angel is on his way back.
The maiden hurdle at 1455 looks very open and you can make a case for quite a few of them but Get Off The Stage comes here in good form and has Barry Geraghty booked for his only ride of the day. This is very much a speculative punt as he leapt off the page at me but more often than not it pays to follow your intuition.
BETS
1325 Thurles Bostons Angel win single @ 11/2 (Fell @ 4/1)
1455 Thurles Get Off The Stage win single @ 4/1 (3rd @ 5/1)
The maiden hurdle at 1455 looks very open and you can make a case for quite a few of them but Get Off The Stage comes here in good form and has Barry Geraghty booked for his only ride of the day. This is very much a speculative punt as he leapt off the page at me but more often than not it pays to follow your intuition.
BETS
1325 Thurles Bostons Angel win single @ 11/2 (Fell @ 4/1)
1455 Thurles Get Off The Stage win single @ 4/1 (3rd @ 5/1)
Tuesday, 6 November 2012
Exeter Tuesday 6th November 2012
What a fantastic card we have today from Exeter, the NH season is really getting into full swing and now's a very exciting time with expectations for the season ahead running high.
The opening novice hurdle at 1350 looks a very hot race, I reluctantly dismiss Gas Line Boy as novices with penalties very rarely win at Exeter, I guess this is due to the quality of horses who make there debut here. Alberobello has progressed well with racing and would have won last time with a better jockey on board. Atlantic Roller was disappointing in two bumpers last season but has strengthened over the summer and could be useful. Salmanazar is a bumper winner who's schooled well and is his in form trainer's and jockey's only runner/ride of the day. The Potting Shed looks interesting as his trainer always introduces her better novices here and this big, rangy animal could out run his price of 10/1 the only negative is the yards runners have been needing the run.
The 2m1f novice hurdle at 1420 is between Billy Twford and Landscape and preference is for the Nicholl's horse as he should come on for his 6th at Cheltenham and prove hard to pass here.
The Haldon Gold Cup is up next and Cue Card looks to have the edge at these weights, unbeaten on his seasonal reappearance he put Menorah in his place at Cheltenham last March and can confirm that form here.
The novice chase at 1520 looks at Hinterland's mercy as he dotted up on his reappearance in a handicap hurdle, he's his trainer's number one Arkle hope and he should make a winning chase debut here.
A 3m handicap chase follows and 6 year old's don't seem to win these at Exeter so the likely Nicholl's favourite is passed over in preference for the 10yo Richards Sundance who can go well fresh, likes Exeter and has dropped to a decent mark.
The closing 3m handicap hurdle looks very poor with nothing standing out.
Bets
1350 The Potting Shed e/w @ 10/1 (6th @ 20/1)
1420 Landscape win single @ 13/8 (1st @ 11/8)
1550 Richards Sundance win single @ 4/1 (1st @ 9/2)
The opening novice hurdle at 1350 looks a very hot race, I reluctantly dismiss Gas Line Boy as novices with penalties very rarely win at Exeter, I guess this is due to the quality of horses who make there debut here. Alberobello has progressed well with racing and would have won last time with a better jockey on board. Atlantic Roller was disappointing in two bumpers last season but has strengthened over the summer and could be useful. Salmanazar is a bumper winner who's schooled well and is his in form trainer's and jockey's only runner/ride of the day. The Potting Shed looks interesting as his trainer always introduces her better novices here and this big, rangy animal could out run his price of 10/1 the only negative is the yards runners have been needing the run.
The 2m1f novice hurdle at 1420 is between Billy Twford and Landscape and preference is for the Nicholl's horse as he should come on for his 6th at Cheltenham and prove hard to pass here.
The Haldon Gold Cup is up next and Cue Card looks to have the edge at these weights, unbeaten on his seasonal reappearance he put Menorah in his place at Cheltenham last March and can confirm that form here.
The novice chase at 1520 looks at Hinterland's mercy as he dotted up on his reappearance in a handicap hurdle, he's his trainer's number one Arkle hope and he should make a winning chase debut here.
A 3m handicap chase follows and 6 year old's don't seem to win these at Exeter so the likely Nicholl's favourite is passed over in preference for the 10yo Richards Sundance who can go well fresh, likes Exeter and has dropped to a decent mark.
The closing 3m handicap hurdle looks very poor with nothing standing out.
Bets
1350 The Potting Shed e/w @ 10/1 (6th @ 20/1)
1420 Landscape win single @ 13/8 (1st @ 11/8)
1550 Richards Sundance win single @ 4/1 (1st @ 9/2)
Sunday, 4 November 2012
Sunday 4th November 2012
Yesterdays four selections all missed the target, a very disappointing day on the whole. I thought Fill The Power was left with far to much to do in the novice chase at Wetherby and will still be of interest in the future, providing he gets a better ride. Ace High's run was particularly bad, the jockey reported he ran flat and the horse routinely tested.
Onto today then and lets hope the selection fairs better than yesterdays effort's, there's a decent handicap chase at Carlisle and I think Sue Smith's Rebel Swing looks a decent each-way bet at 10/1, a course winner last time out and up 6lbs for that effort, he handles the conditions well and is a real tough character who should be in the van all the way round. Sue has a decent record here with her handicap chasers and a big run is expected.
Bet
Rebel Swing - Each-way @ 10/1 (6th @ 15/2)
Onto today then and lets hope the selection fairs better than yesterdays effort's, there's a decent handicap chase at Carlisle and I think Sue Smith's Rebel Swing looks a decent each-way bet at 10/1, a course winner last time out and up 6lbs for that effort, he handles the conditions well and is a real tough character who should be in the van all the way round. Sue has a decent record here with her handicap chasers and a big run is expected.
Bet
Rebel Swing - Each-way @ 10/1 (6th @ 15/2)
Saturday, 3 November 2012
Saturday 3rd November 2012
What a great days’ racing we have today with meetings
at Wetherby, Ascot and Ayr plus a couple of nice race's over at Down Royal.
We begin with the United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase, a Grade 3 event at Ascot where Ace High is a solid e/w bet at 5/1, I'm very keen on this horse and believe he will make a very good chaser in time and off 142 here he will take some stopping, I will be following him over the course of the season and think this race is his early season target.
Staying at Ascot for my next bet which is in the 1615 NHF race where Rebecca Curtis's runner merits the upmost respect. Amifunnyyet made an encouraging debut three weeks ago and improvement looks a formality.
Over to Wetherby and I like the look of Fill The Power in the 3m1f novice chase, he jumped well on his chase debut at Sedgefield, goes well fresh and his trainers chasers are running well at the moment. Keep an eye on Knockando with a view to the future as im sure this old fashioned chasing type will do well now he's been switched to fences.
Onto the feature race of the day the Charlie Hall Chase and im drawn to Time For Rupert as a value bet against the likely winner and favourite Silviniaco Conti. Time For Rupert ran well on a couple of occasions last season and he's always promised to be top class. He finished second in this race last year and can give the favourite the most to think about.
Bets
Ascot 1510 Ace High e/w @ 5/1 (p/u @ 4/1)
Ascot 1615 Amifunnyyet win single @ 9/2 (5th @ 5/1)
Wetherby 1340 Fill The Power win single @ 3/1 (3rd @ 3/1)
Wetherby 1525 Time For Rupert win single @ 9/2 (4th @ 3/1)
We begin with the United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase, a Grade 3 event at Ascot where Ace High is a solid e/w bet at 5/1, I'm very keen on this horse and believe he will make a very good chaser in time and off 142 here he will take some stopping, I will be following him over the course of the season and think this race is his early season target.
Staying at Ascot for my next bet which is in the 1615 NHF race where Rebecca Curtis's runner merits the upmost respect. Amifunnyyet made an encouraging debut three weeks ago and improvement looks a formality.
Over to Wetherby and I like the look of Fill The Power in the 3m1f novice chase, he jumped well on his chase debut at Sedgefield, goes well fresh and his trainers chasers are running well at the moment. Keep an eye on Knockando with a view to the future as im sure this old fashioned chasing type will do well now he's been switched to fences.
Onto the feature race of the day the Charlie Hall Chase and im drawn to Time For Rupert as a value bet against the likely winner and favourite Silviniaco Conti. Time For Rupert ran well on a couple of occasions last season and he's always promised to be top class. He finished second in this race last year and can give the favourite the most to think about.
Bets
Ascot 1510 Ace High e/w @ 5/1 (p/u @ 4/1)
Ascot 1615 Amifunnyyet win single @ 9/2 (5th @ 5/1)
Wetherby 1340 Fill The Power win single @ 3/1 (3rd @ 3/1)
Wetherby 1525 Time For Rupert win single @ 9/2 (4th @ 3/1)
Wednesday, 31 October 2012
Wednesday 31st October 2012
Greeting folks, had a little holiday since my last post and back now fully refreshed. Today's NH action is from Haydock Park and the 3m Handicap Chase at 1510 is the race Im focusing on.
Buffalo Bob has conditions to suit here, though softer ground will increase his chances. He's had a wind operation since his last run can go well fresh and is a front runner who will give a good account.
Vincitore ran really well last time on reappearance and up 5lbs but he has yet to win a handicap from seven attempts, up in class here and ground maybe too soft.
Ballybough Gorta has taken really well to chasing with four wins and two seconds, up 3lbs for latest run and should be on the scene providing ground not to soft.
Allanard produced a career best five days ago but generally inconsistent and not the best of jumpers, race record suggests that this run may come to soon.
Satou has ability, three miles suits but he wouldn't want it too soft, he's well in off 115 and if fully tuned up for reappearance he's respected. Race record suggests he will come on for the run.
Verdict
Buffalo Bob by process of elimination looks the one here even though his trainers stated he's only 90% fit as his early season target is next month at Newbury. Satou is respected as a threat but his record suggests he will come on for the run.
Bets
Buffalo Bob win single @ 5/1
Buffalo Bob has conditions to suit here, though softer ground will increase his chances. He's had a wind operation since his last run can go well fresh and is a front runner who will give a good account.
Vincitore ran really well last time on reappearance and up 5lbs but he has yet to win a handicap from seven attempts, up in class here and ground maybe too soft.
Ballybough Gorta has taken really well to chasing with four wins and two seconds, up 3lbs for latest run and should be on the scene providing ground not to soft.
Allanard produced a career best five days ago but generally inconsistent and not the best of jumpers, race record suggests that this run may come to soon.
Satou has ability, three miles suits but he wouldn't want it too soft, he's well in off 115 and if fully tuned up for reappearance he's respected. Race record suggests he will come on for the run.
Verdict
Buffalo Bob by process of elimination looks the one here even though his trainers stated he's only 90% fit as his early season target is next month at Newbury. Satou is respected as a threat but his record suggests he will come on for the run.
Bets
Buffalo Bob win single @ 5/1
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)